Politics

African dawn: powers are scrambling for influence and resources

Once a colonialist’s playground, the world’s second largest continent has a newfound confidence in its worth. This could well be Africa’s century. Who it chooses to partner will be important.

Joe Penney / Reuters

Chadian soldiers march during Flintlock 2014, a US-led training mission for African militaries, in Diffa, Niger, on March 3, 2014.

African dawn: powers are scrambling for influence and resources

Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy

last update on 22 Jul 2024

Since the end of the Cold War, the international system has been in transition. To what end is not yet clear, but the whatever happens next, Africa is central to this new contest gripping the globe.

Different scenarios are possible, including a return to a bipolar world dominated by the United States and China, but the development of a multipolar system is more likely.

In the meantime, the transition may prove disorderly and a period of rivalry between great powers looks likely, with the US, China and Russia competing to shape the future of wider international relations.

Africa’s importance is highlighted by its growing prominence within the BRICS bloc, while the G7’s most recent summit heralded the importance of “engaging with African countries, in a spirit of equitable and strategic partnership”.

History of colonialism

Competition between great powers over Africa is not new. It has reverberated for centuries. Only the actors and their methods have varied.

This story reveals the latest, intense international efforts to secure global influence via Africa and how the continent has evolved in terms of importance and potential.

For centuries, great power competition led to European colonialism, but in the 20th century new entrants included the US, the Soviet Union/Russia, and China.

In the 21st century, this competition has taken on added fervour. Middle-ranking powers are also keen to secure influence in this resource-rich and fast-growing region.

The Big Three

The extent of Washington’s ambition was clear in the latest US National Security Strategy, issued in September 2022. It said Africa’s evolution will be a central to the next century, for the US and the world, and that it is and important arena for the way the next generation of the world order is evolving.

For Beijing, there is also a central role for Africa in its strategic outlook. The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, held in November 2022, noted that the continent would have a role in “reforming the global governance system”.

In Moscow, the Foreign Policy Concept issued in March 2023 envisaged Africa and the Global South as a major part of efforts to set up a “new multipolar international order”.

Barbara Debout / AFP — A demonstrator, who has a Russian flag inserted in the shoulder strap of his bag, poses for a portrait in Bangui, on March 22, 2023 during a march in support of Russia and China in the Central African Republic.

The competition plays out diplomatically, politically, economically, and militarily. Since the end of the Cold War, security efforts have focused on counterterrorism. This has also drawn in middle-ranking powers.

Yet after centuries of dominance, the West has increasingly been pushed out of some African countries in recent years, representing setbacks in the race for influence.

Closures and exits

The US has announced the closure of its two bases in Niger, one near Niamey and the other in Agadez, with a complete withdrawal of its troops by September.

French military deployments have already left Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, appearing to end the long-term military interests in the Sahel that Paris may once have had.

All the while, Russia has been focusing on picking up the pieces in North Africa, the Sahel, and its hinterland. Moscow may be expanding its presence in Libya, Sudan, Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso. In most of these states, military figures have launched recent coups.

Moscow is believed to harbour a long-term strategic ambition to build a Russian naval base in Port Sudan for access to the Red Sea. It is also increasing its military cooperation with General Haftar in eastern and southern Libya.

China, meanwhile, is consolidating its economic interests all over the continent, with infrastructure investments that are thought also to have potential military applications.

Scrambling for Africa

All this amounts to what is being called ‘the second scramble for Africa’. The first came in the colonial era in the late 19th century.

In 1894, 13 European powers plus the US met in Berlin to carve out African territories amongst themselves with the purpose of exploiting the continent’s rich resources.

Seven European countries ended up holding territory in Africa until the outbreak of the First World War in 1914. For the remainder of the 20th century, Africa was consumed with the struggle for political independence.

Competition between great powers over Africa is not new. It has reverberated for centuries. Only the actors and their methods have varied.

This was a period of political and social instability as well as weak economic growth. Various economic and governance models were tested, with difference degrees of success and mainly failure.

Africa was also a sideshow for competition between East and West during the Cold War, the latest geopolitical contest to prevent it from realising its true potential.

But the continent's fortunes began to improve in the 21st century with period of political stability and economic development. Continent-wide gross domestic product (GDP) now stands at over $3tn, with sub-Saharan Africa's growing five-fold.

Africa has big oil and gas reserves and is home to around 30% of the world's critical mineral resources that power the modern world. It will also be home to an expected 40% of the world's population by 2100.

This time around, the rush for influence is not confined to exploiting Africa's natural resources. It also involves access to its markets, labour, and trade routes of great strategic value linking Asia and Europe.

Benoit Tessier / Reuters — French soldier of the 2nd Foreign Engineer Regiment conducts an area control operation in the Gourma region during Operation Barkhane in Ndaki, Mali, on July 28, 2019.

France and the UK still retain some residual interests in the continent, but the dominant players today are China, the US, and Russia. Middle-ranking states include Japan, India, Brazil, Turkey, the Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and even Iran.

Regional interests

There are a number of African countries active on a continental level, including Egypt, Algeria, Morocco, Nigeria and South Africa.

International blocs, including the League of Arab States and the European Union, using economic and financial tools, are developing bilateral relations with key African states, with meetings at summit level. Military and cultural ties bolster their influence.

China has its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a global infrastructure investment programme that it uses to boost its influence and its trade, while France maintains ties with the French-speaking African nations which speak its language.

Meanwhile, the BRICS bloc is a means for states like Russia and Brazil to deepen their relations with Africa.

Trade and investment

Trade has been growing across the continent and throughout African countries' web of relations with the rest of the world.

Direct foreign investment is another important dimension of Africa's international relations.

China and the EU are the largest investors. The EU has also pledged $150bn, while the US has said it will put $50bn into Africa over the next three years.

India is also a top five investor, with $73.9bn ploughed into the continent from 1996-2021, while Turkish contracting companies have undertaken projects worth $77.8bn, but Russia represents less than 1% of total foreign direct investment.

Gulf Cooperation Council countries, principally Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are the fourth largest source of investment into the continent. Their focus is mostly north and east Africa, South Africa, and Nigeria, with interests in the fields of agriculture, telecoms, energy, mining, and ports.

Military matters

The great powers—and to a lesser extent some middle-ranking powers—use military cooperation as an additional tool to reinforce their relations with African states.

Joe Penney / Reuters — A Nigerien soldier apprehends a U.S. special forces soldier during a mock checkpoint during Flintlock 2014, a US-led training mission for African militaries, in Diffa, Niger, on March 5, 2014.

This mostly takes the form of arms sales, training, and operations to combat terrorism. China and Russia's arms sales to Africa states from 2018-22 dwarf those of the West, with the pair accounting for 50% of the continent's weapons purchases.

The US, by contrast, sold Africa 16% of its arms, with French products worth 7.6%. Brazil, Turkey and India are relatively new entrants into the sector, seeking to sell their wares.

China confines its military cooperation to participation in UN peacekeeping missions, exporting arms, and running a naval base in Djibouti. It reportedly wants to build another on Africa's Atlantic coast, with Equatorial Guinea mentioned.

China and Russia's arms sales to Africa states from 2018-22 dwarf those of the West, with the pair accounting for 50% of the continent's weapons purchases.

US military cooperation has included the sale of arms and support in counterterrorism efforts, although the setbacks in the Sahel have undermined its position.

Russia, meanwhile, bolstered its position via its Wagner mercenary group (now renamed the Africa Corps). In early April, about 100 Russian instructors and an air-defence system arrived in Niger, apparently to replace an American one.

Moscow has also strengthened its military cooperation with General Haftar in eastern and southern Libya, and reached an agreement with one of Sudan's warring generals over arms and support in return for a naval base on the Red Sea.

France's military presence, strong from the 1960s, has waned, not least since it withdrew from the Sahel.

The UK has good contacts with African military officers, many of whom attended the Royal Military Academy at Sandhurst and the Royal College of Defence Studies, while Brazil, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey, and India now have a military dimension to their African relationships.

Riyadh signed a contract in 2017 to build a military base in Djibouti, the UAE has military facilities in Assab in Eritrea and Berbera in Somaliland, Turkey has a military base in Djibouti, and India is a major contributor to UN peacekeeping missions.

Cultural ties are a factor, with France and the UK having invested heavily in education. Since independence, hundreds of thousands have studied in the West, including in the US. There are similar links in some areas with Russia, a legacy of Soviet-era ties.

Not taking sides

The Ukraine crisis showed how most African countries do not wish to take sides in the great power rivalry. They also have a better understanding of their value and worth, so feel better placed to secure their national and collective interests when discussing investments.

Africa's influence comes from energy, mineral wealth, and migration. The continent now has important destination markets of its own, not least in providing an energy alternative to Russia, which has been shut out of Europe since the Ukraine war began.

The migration of Africans to Europe in search of jobs is having political and social influence, fuelling racism and contributing to the growth of Europe's far-right parties.

At the same time, most European countries have an ageing and diminishing population. Immigrants work in unpopular industries to sustain the host nations' standard of living.

African states have been given hundreds of millions of euros by Brussels in return for their help in stemming the tide of migration, but it is unclear whether this is working.

Borja Suarez / Reuters — Two migrants rest on the sand after arriving in a fiber boat at Las Burras beach in San Agustin, on the island of Gran Canaria, Spain, July 19, 2024.

For European leaders, mass illegal African migration north is also a security concern, echoing the worries when millions fled Syria from 2011.

The Sahel question

The string of military coups in the Sahel from 2020 raise the prospect of the continent's disavowal of democracy in favour of military-led regimes. That is currently causing huge tensions in the African Union, where most members are against military coups.

As Europe and the US steps back, China and Russia are becoming more popular among developing nations, particularly among coup leaders.

African officials overwhelmingly view China's role in Africa positively. They welcome its non-interference in their internal affairs and its contribution to improving infrastructure.

As Europe and the US steps back, China and Russia are becoming more popular among developing nations, particularly among coup leaders.

China's rapid economic development is an inspiration to African nations and many believe they can benefit from China's recent experience in raising its living standards.

Russia is an appealing partner too. It has a wealth of technical expertise, a non-conditional approach to cooperation, and is a global counterweight to the West.

But Russia has its own challenges, particularly when it comes to investment. Russia is hoping to use the Eurasian Economic Union and the BRICS to bolster its position.

Sergei Bobylyovtass / AFP — Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Central African Republic President Faustin-Archange Touadera during a welcoming ceremony at the second Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg on July 27, 2023.

Moscow is benefitting from the rise of military regimes, as these are often hit by US and European economic sanctions if generals topple democratically elected governments. That leaves Moscow as a natural ally and fighting partner against terrorists and extremists.

No strings attached

For the US, there is a balancing act between wanting to promote democracy and needing to deal with African governments as they are.

The lack of strings that Russia and China offer is an advantage for them, compared with the West, but Europe and the US have deeper cultural ties and African elites tend to be Western educated. Some have links to the Soviet era, but nowhere near as significant.

Though active in Africa, other powers will struggle to compete. African countries may lean towards them, however, to get better terms from the world powers. This is a new dynamic that may yet have an impact on the emerging new world order.

Africa is bigger than the US, India, and China combined. It also has big aspirations. How it manages its relations with international partners vying for influence there will determine the future of the continent… and quite possibly the world.

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