Trump’s new moderation: changed man… or strategic calculation?

Just days after surviving a shooting, the finger-jabbing Republican challenger has dialled down the rhetoric and the divisiveness. Has he had an epiphany, or is this just Trump being tactical?

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump appeared less focused on himself and less outraged in general while addressing delegates at the party's 2024 convention in Milwaukee last week.
Axel Rangel Garcia
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump appeared less focused on himself and less outraged in general while addressing delegates at the party's 2024 convention in Milwaukee last week.

Trump’s new moderation: changed man… or strategic calculation?

It was remarkable and quite unusual for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, during his speech at the Republican National Convention (RNC) in Milwaukee, to call for unity among Americans and speak against division.

He assured the nation that "we rise together and fall together," rejecting the idea of demonising differences.

Trump's speech addressed the recent assassination attempt against him as someone who had just confronted the imminent possibility of death, not as a politician battling powerful opponents trying to end his life.

Unexpectedly, Trump's language was calm, even evoking empathy and commonality among Americans, rather than his usual loud and aggressive tone evoking conflict.

Trump's surprising speech was perfectly suited for an RNC aimed at winning voters, particularly swing voters. Stirring up hostilities that create discomfort seemed to be deprioritised.

Republican love-in

The convention, like its Democratic counterpart (to be held in Chicago next month), is the most significant event for the Republican Party. It occurs every four years during presidential election cycles.

The primary purpose is to nominate the party's presidential candidate through a caucus election process, similar to the Electoral College procedures that elect the US president in a Congressional session in January, two months after the election.

Mike Segar / Reuters
Donald Trump is joined on stage by wife Melania and other relatives and Republican vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance and his wife Usha at the RNC.

After the Republican primary elections in the 50 states and the five US territories, representatives gather at the RNC to cast their votes, reflecting voters' preferences in the primaries. Only through this process is the winner legally declared the party's presidential candidate.

Aside from fulfilling this legal requirement, the primary purpose of the national convention, both Republican and Democratic, is to serve as PR for the candidate. This was precisely what happened during the four-day RNC.

The most important segment occurs on its final day when the presidential candidate, officially nominated by the party, delivers the nomination speech. Arise, Donald Trump.

To promote Trump (the main task of the convention), the event gathered about 80 speakers who highlighted various Trump virtues. So, for instance, he was portrayed as a loving grandfather by his granddaughter, Kai Madison Trump.

Questions on policy

His Vice President, J.D. Vance, who emphasised the personal side of Trump's life, also criticised what he viewed as the failures of President Joe Biden's policies.

Trump’s eldest son, Donald Jr, also discussed his father's policies as president, which he claimed “made America great again”. He said Democrats’ lawsuits against his father were designed to defeat “America’s only hope”.

About 80 speakers highlighted various Trump virtues. So, for instance, he was portrayed as a loving grandfather by his granddaughter, Kai.

Unusually, the convention did not provide much information about Trump's electoral programme, outlined in a document titled The 2024 Republican Party Platform to Make America Great Again, which was distributed at the event.

This contained 20 promises that fell along familiar Trump lines, including economic protectionism (tariffs), tax cuts for the wealthy, political isolationism, and efforts to stop the "invasion at our borders" up to and including forced deportation.

Evelyn Hockstein / Reuters
Supporters of Donald Trump at the Republican Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 18, 2024.

His vision does not easily align with traditional Republican values such as free trade, moral leadership in the world, natural strategic cooperation with Europe, and readiness to use military force abroad to defend American interests.

Dialling it down

On domestic social issues like abortion, the harsh and somewhat decisive rhetoric of his 2016 campaign had been toned down.

Eight years ago, his campaign highlighted the moral and religious aspects of abortion. In 2024, its focus was a legal understanding that treats abortion as a matter of states' rights, rather than a matter of federal jurisdiction.

Overall, the widely anticipated political exploitation of the Trump assassination attempt earlier this month did not materialise. Commentators felt that the Republicans would turn on the Democrats over the shooting.

Jim Vondruska / Getty Images
People watch as Donald Trump's candidate acceptance speech is broadcast inside a bar on the final night of the Republican Convention on July 18, 2024.

That did not happen, however. Instead, the focus was on Democratic policies and the negative impacts of a second Biden presidency.

This measured rhetoric, both throughout the convention and in Trump's speech, reflects a decision by Republican leaders like Mike Johnson and Mitch McConnell.

They think ordinary Americans are tired of divisive and demonising rhetoric that they feel could cost the Republicans the White House in November.

Another emphasis was on solidarity within the Republican Party itself, after internal complaints about extremist rhetoric that has often been associated with Trump.

Trump's speech

Interestingly, Trump mentioned Biden only once in his speech. Over 70 minutes, he trumpeted himself and his personal qualities slightly less than usual (although he still claimed to have the ability to end wars with a phone-call).

Whether it was building a wall on the border with Mexico to prevent illegal immigration, stimulating the economy, defeating China economically, curbing inflation, confronting Iran, supporting Israel, or ending the war in Ukraine, the focus was not on him, but on restoring America's lost greatness.

Trump mentioned Biden only once in his speech. Over 70 minutes, he trumpeted himself and his personal qualities slightly less than usual.

He used the word 'we' a lot more, rather than referring simply to himself. This newfound moderation, veering away from personal attacks, may have come in response to urgent recommendations from Republican leaders.

Alternatively, it might reflect a belief that attacking and demonising the 81-year-old Biden is pointless because Biden will soon be replaced by another Democrat. Biden is struggling but has not yet agreed to quit, as seems likely.

Andrew Kelly / Reuters
The 38-year-old Senator and Republican vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance.

Trump's change of tone could be a strategic Republican calculation regarding Americans' receptiveness to personal attacks, a tactical calculation regarding an ailing adversary, a personal reaction to Trump having narrowly survived a shooting, or a combination of factors.

Most feel that this most un-Trump-like Trump does not mean that Trump has changed significantly as a person. Rather, it suggests that he has adapted to a changing political reality. How long this new moderation lasts is anyone's guess.

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