The United States has rarely felt less united. Cue the lone wolves

Barbed and personal attacks by the 2024 Democratic and Republican presidential candidates create a charged and feverish atmosphere. Very few will be surprised that it turned violent.

The United States has rarely felt less united. Cue the lone wolves

The failed attempt to assassinate Donald Trump should come as no surprise.

Those who follow the former president’s statements and those of his Democratic rival Joe Biden, and who read the studies and opinion polls may well have suspected that serious political violence was likely before the US presidential election in November.

Warnings of a “civil war” in the United States are not baseless. The high viewing figures for a movie depicting just such a scenario may be down to incredible cinematography, but they more likely tell a story about the mood and fears of the US.

The United States is not united. The campaign trail statements of Biden and Trump show this precarious balance.

Yet throughout history, even when presidential candidates or former presidents faced assassination attempts, the election focus remained on the political issues of the time, both domestic and foreign.

A personal focus

The resilience of this democratic system has consistently relied on its intrinsic institutions to safeguard against chaos. These institutions ensure that the presidency and the nation persevere, even if individual politicians are felled.

Today, a focus on the political issues of the day seems like a pipe dream. A distinguishing element of this electoral battle is its focus on personal attributes, whether on Biden’s age and suspected ill health, to Trump’s convictions and sexual partners.

Typically, democratic debates centre on ideas, policies, and prospects. Today, Americans only hear about candidates’ personalities, abilities, patriotism, and eligibility, with insults such as “enemy” and “traitor” thrown around.

Americans hear about candidates' personalities, abilities, patriotism, and eligibility, with insults such as 'enemy' and 'traitor' thrown around. 

Add to that a proliferation of deadly weapons and it is not surprising that a so-called 'lone wolf' shooter from either side of the political divide tries to eliminate the "traitor" candidate, as they see it, given what both Biden and Trump have said.

In early June, Trump told Fox News that his prison sentence would cause the country to "collapse," citing an opinion poll where 40% believed he would remain "qualified for the position of president" even if sent to jail.

Stoking hatred

At a rally in March, he warned of a "bloodbath" if he lost, while in April, he told Time Magazine that the only way he would lose the 2024 election is if it were "rigged".

He still refuses to recognise that Biden won in 2020, causing many Americans to recall the attack on the US Capitol by his riled-up supporters on 6 January 2021.

Biden, too, has left decorum at the door. At a Connecticut fundraiser in June, he called Trump a "convicted criminal," "reckless," and a "dangerous individual" hell-bent on winning.

Following a below-par CNN debate performance, Biden lamented the public's fixation on his verbal problems, while ignoring Trump's "grave mistakes".

To supporters in Michigan, he said Trump was "more perilous to America than ever", adding that Trump would win the 2024 election "over my dead body".

Trump's hero status

Such phrases are jarring in the American political lexicon. They are especially hazardous when uttered by top political figures in a nation beset by an unprecedented polarisation between right- and left-wingers.

Polls paint a stark picture. A PBS survey last spring revealed that 20% of respondents condoned violence as necessary to restore the country's trajectory. A further 10-30% accepted it as a way to resolve internal political crises.

A PBS survey last spring revealed that 20% of respondents condoned violence as necessary to restore the country's trajectory.

In this climate, it is also no surprise that images of Trump with a bloodied ear reinforce his 'hero' status among supporters, and fuel accusations that Biden's team is behind the 'demonisation'.

Biden was swift to condemn the assassination attempt, calling it "sick violence". The idea may have been to rebrand him as a firefighter, to overcome his recent setbacks.

Either way, while the candidates may dial down the tone in the coming days, it is highly likely that the temperature will rise once again as we near voting day.

The Trump shooting is unlikely to be the last such incident the United States will see.

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