Ahead of the UK’s much anticipated general election on 4 July, there is some speculation that a new British government might pursue a different track regarding the Middle East, after 14 years of Conservative-led government.
Yet while a radical shift in UK foreign policy is unlikely, two nuances regarding Iran and Palestine can be gleaned from the two big parties’ pre-election declarations and electoral manifestos.
The Labour party, which most analysts expect to win a majority, appears to take a more developed stance on both issues, yet this still leaves the UK’s wider engagement with the Middle East unclear.
The UK’s right-wing
One of the surprises in pre-election polling is the popularity of the far-right anti-immigrant party, Reform UK, which has now overtaken the UK’s traditional centre-right party: the Conservatives.
There is no expectation that Reform will win enough seats to set policy, but if the Conservatives win enough seats to give a hung parliament (no clear majority for any one party) then Reform could enter a tactical right-wing alliance.
In any Conservative-Reform ruling coalition, the Conservatives would likely still set the agenda on the Middle East, since Reform’s priorities are domestic. Indeed, it does not mention the Middle East once in its manifesto.
The region only gets a fleeting mention in the Conservatives’ document, reminding voters that the Conservative government signed trade and security deals with countries in the Middle East.
It pledges to “seek closer ties with partners in the Gulf and the Middle East based on an appreciation of regional perspectives and shared interests,” but does not explain what these might be.
Defence and Iran
The Conservatives want the UK to become Europe’s largest defence exporter by 2030. The Middle East is currently the biggest market for British weapons.
Yet the UK cannot simply expect its arms exports to the region to grow. Gulf states have their own diplomatic, economic, and security priorities that determine where they spend their defence budgets.
Where the UK fits in this equation depends on several factors including the UK’s stance on geopolitical issues and the degree to which this serves Gulf interests.
With Iran having been a key destabilising actor in the Middle East, Gulf states will be eyeing the next UK government’s policy on Tehran, yet neither the Conservative nor the Labour party manifesto mentions Iran at all.
Yet while Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has rejected calls from MPs to proscribe the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation, Labour’s shadow foreign secretary David Lammy said they would do so once in power.
This indicates that while Labour is leaving its options open, its Iran policy could become much bolder. It could also be affected by the US presidential election.
Stance on Palestine
The two parties’ manifestos converge in mentioning recognition of a Palestinian state in the context of the Israel-Palestine peace process, but neither gives a timeline. The two also differ in their framing of the wider conflict.
The Conservatives say they would “staunchly stand behind Israel’s right to defend itself and to live with security” while saying nothing of the suffering in Gaza, or the future of the coastal strip.
