Shortly after Hamas launched its surprise attack on southern Israel, Iran rallied its forces, most notably Hezbollah, its powerful proxy militia in Lebanon.
The next day, there were more cross-border attacks in Israel’s north. It looked like a second front would soon open, alongside Israel’s war in Gaza.
Yet there was nothing out-of-the-ordinary from southern Lebanon. The skirmishes were largely in-line with the long-established rules of engagement between Hezbollah and Israel. That suited both parties.
Lebanon’s economy is in tatters, after some of the worst financial mismanagement in recent history. It can ill afford a costly war against Israel. As such, Hezbollah was careful to be seen to act, but to do so in a way that avoided a major conflict.
Yet just after the Hamas attacks, Lebanon’s interim Prime Minister Najib Mikati made an important point, when he said candidly that “the authority to decide peace and war does not rest with me or with the government”.
Temporary relief
The world breathed a sigh of relief when it looked like a much wider regional conflict in the Middle East would not break out. Iran showed no signs of getting directly involved, and Israel was busy in Gaza.
In recent weeks, however, those original worries about escalation and war-widening have returned, not least after the beating of Tel Aviv’s drums grew louder. Israeli ministers, including most notably Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have domestic political reasons to keep Israel on a war footing.
In Beirut, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah said his group’s cross-border attacks had distracted Israel enough to diminish Israeli aggression in Gaza. This seems a spurious claim, given that Israeli aggression in Gaza could scarcely have been less diminished.