Despite heightened diplomatic efforts from Washington and Paris, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah continues to escalate. While the Israel-Lebanon border regions have been marred by near-daily hostilities since the inception of the Gaza war last October, recent attacks have intensified in scale and ferocity. In response, Israeli officials are increasingly signalling an imminent full-scale offensive along the northern border with Lebanon, sparking speculation that a major military operation could occur before summer's end.
As the world watches for the next moves, attention is turning towards Damascus to understand al-Assad’s position, which remains ambiguous. Syria—a crucial ally of Hezbollah with a shared border with Lebanon—could play a strategic role in influencing the outcome of such a confrontation. The pivotal question is: Will al-Assad replicate his support from the July 2006 Israel-Hezbollah conflict by providing military and logistical support and perhaps even opening a supportive front? Or will he maintain a more neutral stance, as observed during the Gaza war?
Surge in escalation
The alarming reports about a potential full-scale offensive along the Israel-Lebanon border are linked to a recent increase in military escalation. According to open-source data, May saw the highest number of Hezbollah attacks against Israel since 8 October 2023. During this period, Hezbollah carried out 325 attacks, averaging 10.8 attacks per day. In comparison, April witnessed 238 attacks, with an average of 7.8 per day.
Notably, the use of anti-tank missiles and drones by Hezbollah doubled compared to April 2024. The group maintained its intensified attacks into June, penetrating Israeli airspace, damaging military bases, injuring Israeli soldiers, and setting off massive wildfires. Likewise, Israel has intensified its air strikes in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah-linked operatives, military capabilities, and structures using missiles, drones, and fighter jets.
Moreover, Israeli officials are increasingly signalling their readiness for a full-scale offensive along the northern border with Lebanon. On 4 June, the Chief of Staff of the Israeli army, Herzi Halevi, stated that Israel was poised for a military offensive along the northern border with Lebanon and that they were nearing a decision point after extensive training.
This comment is part of a series of recent remarks by Israeli officials hinting at military action in Lebanon. That includes Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who also echoed this sentiment during a recent visit to the northern border following a significant Hezbollah attack on the town of Hurfeish in the Upper Galilee region, stating, "We are prepared for a very intense operation in the north."
Read more: An all-out Israel-Hezbollah war looks increasingly likely