IRGC will likely influence Iran's choice for next Supreme Leader

In a worst-case scenario, there are fears that the IRGC could mount a “velvet coup” to sideline candidates it dislikes or install a weak figurehead into the Supreme Leader role

IRGC will likely influence Iran's choice for next Supreme Leader

As discussions on Iran's future swirled in the wake of President Ebrahim Raisi's death in a fatal helicopter crash last month, I remembered an article from a French newspaper from the 1990s. Le Figaro’s piece, 'How to be a Persian?' featured an enigmatic and unpredictable Persian character. This character embodies the current national fixation on Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei's succession to take over from his father as Supreme Leader in the event of his death.

Raisi was more than just a president. He was also the foremost contender to become Supreme Leader after Ali Khamenei. Now that he is out of the picture, the path seems clear for Mojtaba to assume the role. Following Raisi's death, Khamenei reassured the Iranian people that "there will be no disruption in the country's affairs".

Whoever assumes the mantle of Supreme Leader will have to manage the delicate balance of power between the country’s revolutionaries and state officials. The helicopter crash that killed Raisi and other Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, along with their entourage, put the interplay between different parts of the country’s elite and the trajectory of Iran's politics back under the spotlight.

Parallel power structures

Ever since the Iranian revolution and the establishment of the Islamic Republic, two constants have endured. First, the Supreme Leader is the ultimate authority to determine what is in the public interest, thus his title. Whoever assumes this top role should have a firm grasp of contemporary issues and display courage in leadership and adeptness in management, as outlined in the Iranian constitution.

The relationship dynamic between the Supreme Leader and the IRGC is important and can shape Iran's future.

However, another parallel was set up alongside national institutions: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other military and security forces. Together, they function as a parallel power structure.

This gives Iran's governance system a dual nature. Although both power structures are effectively centred on the Supreme Leader, the relationship dynamic between the two structures is important and can shape Iran's future.

Khamenei and senior IRGC officers have a close rapport—one that was forged during the Iran-Iraq War when he was president. This close relationship, which has extended back decades, means that the twin power structures enjoy seamless coordination and communication.

However, without Raisi—who was adept at managing relations with the IRGC and ready to fill any void created by Khamenei's absence—succession could now become politically charged.  The IRGC is expected to exert its influence over the process. In a worst-case scenario, there are fears that it could mount what is known as a "velvet coup" to sideline candidates it dislikes or install a weak leader or figurehead into the Supreme Leader role.

font change