In the deadly game of diplomatic poker being played out between Israel and Hamas over implementing a ceasefire in Gaza, all the indications from the negotiations suggest the outcome will depend on who is prepared to blink first in terms of making major concessions.
On one side, there is the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which insists that the war in Gaza will not be concluded until Hamas’s operational military infrastructure has been completely destroyed.
On the other, Hamas is demanding that there will be no deal on returning the hundred or so Israeli hostages still being held in captivity until all Israeli forces have been withdrawn from the Gaza enclave and hostilities ended. Trying to reconcile these two extremist positions has been at the heart of the negotiations to end the war.
And while the possibility exists that agreement on a new ceasefire still remains feasible, the insistence of both sides on maintaining their maximalist positions remains a major obstacle, as recent events have demonstrated.
Having initially suggested that it would not accept any new ceasefire proposal so long as Israel maintained its military operations in Gaza, Hamas’s announcement earlier this week that it had agreed to a three-phase deal to halt hostilities initially raised hopes that a ceasefire deal was imminent.
Under the terms of the mediation deal negotiated under the auspices of the US, Egypt and Qatar, Hamas leaders said they would agree to a 42-day ceasefire period, during which 33 Israeli hostages would be returned to Israel, whether alive or dead. In return, Israel would release 30 Palestinian women and children held in Israeli prisons for each released Israeli hostage.
If the first phase of the agreement, which also includes provisions for further hostage releases in return for a gradual Israel military withdrawal and the release of more Palestinian prisoners, then further measures would be implemented to restore a “sustainable calm” to Gaza.
Hamas’s unilateral announcement that it was willing to accept the deal prompted widespread rejoicing throughout the Gaza Strip, where more than 34,000 Palestinians—the majority of whom are women and children—have been killed in the past seven months.