Israel under growing international pressure to accept ceasefire deal

Israel’s refusal to accept the US-Qatari-Egypt-brokered ceasefire deal and press on with its Rafah offensive is likely to increase its international isolation even further

Israel under growing international pressure to accept ceasefire deal

In the deadly game of diplomatic poker being played out between Israel and Hamas over implementing a ceasefire in Gaza, all the indications from the negotiations suggest the outcome will depend on who is prepared to blink first in terms of making major concessions.

On one side, there is the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which insists that the war in Gaza will not be concluded until Hamas’s operational military infrastructure has been completely destroyed.

On the other, Hamas is demanding that there will be no deal on returning the hundred or so Israeli hostages still being held in captivity until all Israeli forces have been withdrawn from the Gaza enclave and hostilities ended. Trying to reconcile these two extremist positions has been at the heart of the negotiations to end the war.

And while the possibility exists that agreement on a new ceasefire still remains feasible, the insistence of both sides on maintaining their maximalist positions remains a major obstacle, as recent events have demonstrated.

Having initially suggested that it would not accept any new ceasefire proposal so long as Israel maintained its military operations in Gaza, Hamas’s announcement earlier this week that it had agreed to a three-phase deal to halt hostilities initially raised hopes that a ceasefire deal was imminent.

Under the terms of the mediation deal negotiated under the auspices of the US, Egypt and Qatar, Hamas leaders said they would agree to a 42-day ceasefire period, during which 33 Israeli hostages would be returned to Israel, whether alive or dead. In return, Israel would release 30 Palestinian women and children held in Israeli prisons for each released Israeli hostage.

If the first phase of the agreement, which also includes provisions for further hostage releases in return for a gradual Israel military withdrawal and the release of more Palestinian prisoners, then further measures would be implemented to restore a “sustainable calm” to Gaza.

Hamas’s unilateral announcement that it was willing to accept the deal prompted widespread rejoicing throughout the Gaza Strip, where more than 34,000 Palestinians—the majority of whom are women and children—have been killed in the past seven months.

Israel's refusal to accept the US-Qatari-Egypt-brokered ceasefire deal is likely to increase the Netanyahu government's international isolation even further.

Short-lived celebrations

The celebrations proved short-lived, though, when Israel rejected the deal, saying it was not acceptable because its terms had been "softened". It vowed to continue with its invasion of Gaza's southernmost city of Rafah.

While Hamas's initial acceptance of the offer might suggest it has played its trump card too early, the fact that Netanyahu has agreed to send a team of negotiators to Cairo to discuss an agreement suggests that the negotiations remain very much alive, even if there is uncertainty about the eventual outcome.

The Israelis claim the terms of the deal on offer from Hamas are "far from" its "obligatory demands", with Israeli officials warning that the Hamas plan "would appear to be a ruse intended to make Israel look like the side refusing a deal". 

As a result, the Israeli army intends to continue with their planned ground invasion of Rafah—a move that has drawn criticism from both the US and international aid agencies. Israel's determination to maintain its offensive against Hamas was reflected in its seizure and closing of the Rafah crossing, thereby cutting off a vital aid road to Palestinian civilians.

Growing international pressure

Israel's refusal to accept the US-Qatari-Egypt-brokered ceasefire deal is likely to increase the Netanyahu government's international isolation even further, with world leaders urging both sides to agree terms and end the bloodshed in Gaza.

The pressure on Israel to accept a ceasefire deal will certainly increase after Hamas bowed to pressure from world leaders to accept the ceasefire terms. Speaking during his recent visit to Riyadh for the World Economic Forum, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron made a special plea to Hamas to accept the agreement.

"I hope Hamas does take this deal. Honestly, all the pressure in the world and all the eyes of the world should be on them today, saying, 'Take that deal'. It will bring about this stop in the fighting that we all want to see so badly," he said.

The pressure on Israel to accept a ceasefire deal will certainly increase after Hamas bowed to pressure from world leaders to accept the ceasefire terms.

Cameron's comments were echoed by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who insisted that Hamas had been presented with an "extraordinarily generous" offer by Israel that he hoped it would accept.

Accepting the deal so far on offer certainly represents a major concession for Hamas, as releasing the remaining Israeli hostages—a central part of the deal—ultimately deprives Hamas of their main trump card in terms of their future dealings with the Israelis. 

Hamas leaders are also deeply opposed to demands for the militant group's leadership and infrastructure in Gaza to be dismantled.

Right-wing pressure

Agreeing to a deal that would result in the release of significant numbers of Palestinian prisoners being released also raises many challenges for the Netanyahu government, with several prominent members of Netanyahu's right-wing government threatening to resign—a move that would cause the government's collapse.

Netanyahu himself has further complicated matters by warning that Israel is going to continue with its military offensive against Rafah even if negotiators manage to secure a deal for the hostages' release.

In a statement issued by his office, Netanyahu warned that Israel will carry out its military offensive against Rafah regardless of whether or not a ceasefire and hostage release deal is reached. "The idea that we will stop the war before achieving all its objectives is out of the question," Netanyahu said.

As a consequence, the stalemate over negotiations for a Gaza ceasefire remains, despite Hamas's announcement that it is willing to accept the terms currently on offer. The key question now is whether the Israeli government can be persuaded to do the same and take the first steps towards bringing the bloodshed in Gaza to an end.

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