'Davos in Riyadh' charts a course to a thriving global economy

Halfway into Vision 2030, the Saudi economy recorded steady progress and made impressive strides toward a prosperous future

The choice to hold the World Economic Forum (WEF) outside of Davos wasn't coincidental. It came as the Middle East reals from multiple crises and conflicts, in contrast to Saudi Arabia, which shines as a beacon of stability. 
Al Majalla
The choice to hold the World Economic Forum (WEF) outside of Davos wasn't coincidental. It came as the Middle East reals from multiple crises and conflicts, in contrast to Saudi Arabia, which shines as a beacon of stability. 

'Davos in Riyadh' charts a course to a thriving global economy

The choice to hold the World Economic Forum (WEF) outside of Davos wasn't coincidental. It came as the Middle East reels from multiple crises and conflicts, particularly amid an imminent Israeli assault on Gaza's southern city of Rafah.

The choice of the Saudi capital as the venue to chart the future of “global collaboration, growth and energy for development"— the theme of this year's forum—wasn’t coincidental either.

From Riyadh—an Arab capital viewed as an "alternative Middle East"—a series of clear political and economic messages were broadcast to the world.

Dubbed 'Davos in Riyadh', the forum discussed future trends and indicators in energy, artificial intelligence (AI), and growth opportunities. Notably, it underscored the delicate geopolitical balances necessary to move the Middle East away from being an epicentre for conflicts and toward regional stability.

The event’s resounding success and distinguished attendance should not surprise those familiar with Riyadh and its mega events since the launch of Vision 2030 eight years ago.

'Davos in Riyadh' has realistically and pragmatically defined pathways out of conflicts and disruptive “uncertainty” towards a flourishing regional economy.

Moreover, the forum sent a clear message to countries worldwide that they cannot afford to rest in “economic bliss” while regional conflicts escalate, global supply chains constrict, and economic indicators paint a sobering picture.

AFP
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks on a panel with WEF President Borg Brende (right) during the World Economic Forum held in Riyadh on 29 April 2024.

Recent data—from the Suez Canal's falling revenues to the International Monetary Fund's bleak growth projections for the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia, which fell below 2.7%—underscore the urgency of addressing these challenges.

These same challenges were addressed two weeks ago on the sidelines of the Bretton Woods institutions’ spring meetings. The call was clear: pursue growth and stability instead of reckless and biased policies.

Central to this narrative is the belief that economic cooperation and prosperity play a key role in mitigating tensions. As Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan emphasised, “The region needs stability, focusing on its people, growth, and economy instead of politics and conflicts.”

Amidst a world saturated with rhetoric on climate change but lacking concrete action, exemplified by the repercussions of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, one of the forum's most poignant messages came from Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, who said that Saudi Arabia was committed to supplying the world with various forms of energy, whether hydrogen or nuclear.

“We want to provide the world with energy of any kind,” he stated. He said that the Kingdom aims to “collaborate and partner with all nations in the provision of green energy” and hydrogen transport, adding that Saudi Aramco is evolving into an integrated energy company, encompassing renewable and thermal energy.

He said that addressing climate change requires international and regional efforts, not solely local ones, adding that this is especially crucial considering that 60% of the world’s population lacks access to adequate and sustainable energy sources.

He said that concerted global action is imperative if people genuinely want a more equitable world that benefits all people—not just a few, at the expense of others.

The world is currently grappling with rising debt and inflation and widening economic disparities, as well as supply chain disruptions.

These bleak developments unfold against the backdrop of geopolitical shifts and the ever-evolving landscape of microchip industries spanning from the Red Sea to Taiwan.

'Davos in Riyadh' has realistically and pragmatically defined pathways out of conflicts and disruptive "uncertainty" towards a flourishing regional economy.

A beacon of stability

Amidst a volatile global economy characterised by uncertainty and historically high interest rates, Saudi Arabia shines as a beacon of stability. There's no denying that the fruits of 'Davos in Riyadh' stem from the seeds planted by Vision 2030 for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. 

As it marches forward, the Vision is already at 87% completion. Approximately 81% of key performance indicators (KPIs) met their annual targets, as outlined in the Vision 2030 annual report.

The Saudi economy stands on firm footing, with the non-oil gross domestic product (GDP) hitting a historic high, contributing 50% to the real GDP in 2023 and experiencing a growth rate of 4.7% compared to 2022. Total non-oil government revenues surged to $121.8bn in 2023, marking a $72.2bn increase compared to 2016.

In recent years, Saudi Arabia has undergone a remarkable transformation, signifying a pivotal moment in realising Vision 2030. During this period, the Kingdom has successfully reduced its reliance on oil and diversified its sources of income.

Such achievements have become the focal point of key reports and periodic assessments issued by international bodies such as the IMF and the World Bank, which radiate with positivity and optimism over Saudi Arabia's growing prominence among the most robust and sustainable global economies.

Vision 2030 has laid down solid foundations for the Kingdom, propelling the growth of its economy by fostering the expansion of non-oil sectors.

REUTERS
A Saudi man's reflection is seen in mirror glass at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, October 25, 2022. REUTERS

Read more: IMF crowns Saudi Arabia as G20's fastest-growing economy

In 2022, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia topped the G20 countries with a growth rate of 8.7%, driven by non-oil GDP expansion of approximately 4.8% and a reduction in Saudi unemployment rates to 8%, the lowest in the Kingdom's history.

The IMF attributes this economic growth to the positive impact of ongoing reforms and investments, particularly in regulatory and commercial environments.

These reforms include implementing new laws to promote entrepreneurship, ensure equal opportunities, protect investors' rights, foster transparency, and reduce business costs.

Moreover, 2022 marked a record year with a 95% increase in new investment deals and a staggering 267% surge in issued licenses.  For its part, the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) has also been instrumental in distributing capital to stimulate private-sector investments, further bolstering economic growth.

Luigi Di Maio, the EU special representative to the Gulf region, said that, in response to Riyadh's plan to generate over 30,000 jobs, the number of EU companies investing in Saudi Arabia has soared to 1,300.

Additionally, the EU plans to open a chamber of commerce in Saudi Arabia, which would be the first of its kind in the Gulf region. The chamber would help companies based in the EU open up offices in Saudi Arabia and link them to EU markets.

The choice to hold the World Economic Forum (WEF) outside of Davos wasn't coincidental. It came as the Middle East reals from multiple crises and conflicts.

Future-focused

According to IMF and World Bank projections, the Saudi economy appears poised for further growth and prosperity in 2025.

Despite a slight adjustment in growth projections for the current year, brought on by voluntary cuts in oil production by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC), both institutions anticipate economic growth in the Kingdom reaching approximately 6% in 2025.

Earlier this year, the IMF lowered its growth forecast for the Gulf economies by 1.3 percentage points to 2.4% in 2024, primarily due to voluntary oil production cuts and regional challenges. However, growth is expected to rise to 4.9% in 2025 as hydrocarbon production improves.

The IMF's Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia suggests that growth in the Gulf region will stabilise over the medium term at around 3.5%, aligning with the projected non-oil economy growth of 3.6%, which is anticipated to rise to 4.5% in 2025.

An IMF report released in September 2023 described Saudi Arabia as a burgeoning and robust economic state with a strong financial position.

A PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) analysis—in line with international organisations' expectations—underscored the impact of oil production changes, price volatility, and increased spending in 2023 on the Kingdom's financial outlook.

AI will contribute approximately 2.4% to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's GDP and inject $135bn into the national economy by 2030.

Despite these fluctuations, the report noted the limited impact on Saudi Arabia's financial position, attributed to the upgrade of its sovereign credit rating by international credit rating agencies in the same year.

This comes alongside robust momentum for reforms and non-oil revenue growth driven by increased consumption and revenues from service sectors, including tourism spending and private sector investment.

AI investments

Before the advent of generative AI, in October 2020, the Kingdom approved its National Data and AI Strategy aimed at attracting domestic and foreign investments totalling $20bn by 2030. Additionally, the Kingdom has committed to a $20bn government investment to nurture 300 startups by 2030.

Read more: Saudi Arabia influences the global race for AI investment

In late March, The New York Times revealed discussions to establish a $40bn fund dedicated to investing in AI. This initiative potentially involves a partnership between PIF, which currently boasts assets of $940bn, and Andreessen Horowitz, one of Silicon Valley's leading investment firms, and other financiers collaborating with Wall Street banks.

Recognising Saudi Arabia's substantial strides in AI and its broader transition towards digitisation and a flourishing digital economy, PwC predicts that AI will contribute approximately 2.4% to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's GDP and inject $135bn into the national economy by 2030.

Moreover, in recent years, the Kingdom has demonstrated a commitment to developing promising sectors, including arts, entertainment, sports, and gaming. It will also host Expo 2030.

These endeavours are expected to further stimulate economic activity, diversify the economy, create new job opportunities, and attract foreign investment.

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