The inconclusive outcome of the upsurge in military hostilities between Israel and Iran does not bode well for Hamas’s chances of surviving the Gaza conflict as a viable movement.
In the six months since Israel launched its military offensive in Gaza in response to the 7 October attacks, when Hamas militants launched their devastating attack on southern Israel, the main objective of Hamas commanders has been simply to survive the Israeli onslaught.
Even though Hamas has suffered significant losses, with intelligence estimates suggesting the organisation has already lost around three-quarters of its combat battalions, the Hamas leadership believes that, if it can emerge from the conflict with just a minimal military presence in Gaza, it will have achieved a significant victory—one that will consolidate its position as a key player in Palestinian politics.
To this end, Hamas military leaders, together with the movement’s Qatar-based political leadership, have frustrated repeated efforts to implement a ceasefire in Gaza, believing that the international pressure on Israel, particularly over the high number of Palestinian civilians that have been killed in the fighting, will eventually result in the Israelis being forced to halt their offensive, thereby handing Hamas victory.
These key objectives on the part of the Hamas leadership will now need to be radically revised following the military confrontation between Israel and Iran, which has exposed the weakness of Iran’s position when confronting Israel.
An important factor in Hamas’s calculations about surviving the Gaza conflict has been the support it receives from Iran, which has encouraged its various proxies in the region—from Hezbollah in southern Lebanon to the Houthi rebels in Yemen—to attack the Israelis.
