Bilateral US-Saudi challenges and regional opportunities
The Saudis have outlined their conditions for a true and binding pact. Such a pact is highly unlikely, not least because of the current US political atmosphere and the issue of mistrust between Riyadh and Washington.
Alexandra España/Majalla
Bilateral US-Saudi challenges and regional opportunities
A US-Saudi Arabia defence agreement is back on the table after being derailed last autumn by the conflict in Gaza.
That the volatile Middle East region is again embroiled in a crisis highlights the underlying need for Saudi Arabia and the US to iron out their differences and come to terms on how they can best jointly contribute to regional security.
Although a true defence pact akin to what the US has with Japan and South Korea is a bridge too far for several reasons, there is room to define a security agreement that would support the core interests of both countries.
At the forefront of these interests is a Saudi Arabia that is better postured to contribute to regional defence and confronting Iran’s influence.
The context
Following President Biden's visit to the Kingdom in 2022, a month-long US-led diplomatic effort aimed to convince Saudi Arabia to normalise relations with Israel, in return for an unspecified US-Saudi defence agreement.
The US concept was to build on the Abraham Accords successfully brokered during the Trump administration that culminated in the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco normalising relations with Israel.
Although a true defence pact akin to what the US has with Japan and South Korea is a bridge too far, there is room to define a security agreement.
To agree to a deal, Saudi Arabia wanted more than just promises of US support if attacked.
It wanted a binding defence agreement that would last beyond any one US election cycle.
Today, the outbreak of conflict in Gaza has further complicated the landscape, but at the same time it underscores the urgency of the need for the US and Saudi Arabia to come to terms on an achievable security agreement.
Saudi benefits
Saudi Arabia needs a long-term solution to Iran, its proxies' growing offensive military capability, and their demonstrated will to use that capability against both regional nations, US forces in the region, and the global supply chain.
Saudi Arabia's much publicised rapprochement with Iran last year, that was facilitated by China, managed to get the Houthis to cease their persistent missile attacks into Saudi Arabia from Yemen.
However, this current ceasefire with the Houthis does nothing to reduce the direct threat from Iran, nor the threat posed by Hezbollah in Lebanon and the other Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria.
The missile attacks by the Iran-backed Houthis that targeted Saudi Arabia before the diplomatic breakthrough clearly demonstrated the urgency of the matter. These attacks threaten the ambitious goals of the Saudi 2030 vision.
As a result, the longer-term issue for Saudi Arabia is that it needs a capable military force that can integrate with other regional militaries along with that of the US to deter any enemy effectively.
Saudi priorities
From the Saudi lens, the conflict in Gaza necessitates that the Palestinian issue be specifically addressed if they are to ink any agreement with the US.
Saudi leaders have been somewhat transparent with their priorities and key requirements for any deal.
For a start, the conflict in Gaza must end. Nothing will happen without that. Then there must be a pathway to a two-state solution, the details of which are not specified.
From the Saudi lens, the conflict in Gaza necessitates that the Palestinian issue be addressed if they are to ink any agreement with the US.
Saudi officials underline that it is imperative that a pathway towards a livable Palestinian state is created, which opens the window to strike a normalisation deal with Israel at some time in the future (in accordance with the Arab initiative).
Furthermore, the Saudis require a signed defense agreement with the US that comes with clear security guarantees and assistance with its nuclear capabilities.
US benefits
A security agreement with Saudi Arabia is in the United States' national interest, while politically, it would provide a win for President Biden ahead of the presidential election.
Separately, the US needs to urgently find a way to encourage Israel to bring an end to the conflict in Gaza. Then there is the larger question of what comes next the day.
An American flag flies near US Navy boats docked at Bahrain's Salman port.
However, in the longer term, putting Saudi Arabia on concrete path to provide for its own defence has been a US goal for the past two decades.
Successive administrations have sought this because it reduces the risk of direct US involvement in a future Middle East conflict.
A US defence agreement may be what it takes for Saudi Arabia to commit to supporting the critical need for this immense task.
Some obstacles
A US-Saudi defence agreement like those the US has with Japan and South Korea was always a long shot. In today's political environment, it is just not achievable.
The reason is that any defence pact that would bind the US to defending Saudi Arabia if it was attacked would require ratification by the US Senate.
Currently, there remains strong opposition to such a deal on both sides of the political aisle, as historically this kind of gold-standard pact has been reserved for only the very closest US partners and some countries in the West.
The US is also loath to have a binding commitment to provide security in such a volatile region.
It is expected that any agreement is tied to the future normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
That will provide both nations with a regional ally in countering Iran. It also will open the door for Arab help in any governance solution when fighting ends in Gaza.
Strategically, it will bring us back to Gulf accords' benefits of the potential to enable joint options for Israel and Gulf Nations' Air and Missile Defense versus Iran.
Security agreement
All Defense and Security Agreements are unique. However, given the ongoing conflict in Gaza and all that entails, this one will require artful diplomacy and real commitment to compromise on both sides to get to a deal.
Lasting security agreements historically start with common ground, not differences, and are centred on a shared threat.
In this case, Iran provides the clear common threat and the Iran-backed Houthis' recent campaign against the free flow of commerce and the global supply chain have made that case on the global stage.
Lasting security agreements historically start with common ground, not differences, and are centred on a shared threat.
With that as a backdrop, the US may propose a Security Agreement with a commitment that, if Saudi Arabia were attacked, the US would guarantee to provide a holistic package of our very best Intelligence and Warning capabilities, as well as a team of advisors and planners, working side-by-side in the internal mission of Saudi defense development. Perhaps that would be enough.
To put this in perspective, this proposal would be more akin to what the US has been doing to support Ukraine than the agreements it has with Japan or South Korea, which reflects a deeper level of participation and support.
Key ingredients
The issue, of course, will be mistrust—the US has a track record of withholding weapons shipments for politically motivated reasons at the worst possible times.
There is one other key ingredient between the US and Saudi Arabia.
Implementing real modernising defence capabilities in Saudi Arabia is a common ground between both countries if they reach a security agreement to stave off future risks for the US.
The US appreciates that Saudi Arabia already possess some of the very best and most capable US systems and has made efforts to modernise its military arsenal.
It also appreciates the fact that the Kingdom seeks to build a professional military force that is trained and capable of successfully employing the robust array of US weapons systems that they already have.
Saudi Arabia has acknowledged that it has made this a priority.
The US aims to have a stake in this effort, so that jointly they can make the necessary changes that will best align US security cooperation efforts in the Kingdom to support Saudi defence reform.
In summary
There is no easy button to push, but there are ways forward to achieve a Security Agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia.
Such an agreement could meet both countries' objectives and would finally move the needle towards a Saudi Arabia that is better postured to contribute to regional defence and enhance its military capabilities.
