Syria sees worst violence in four years

As a result, approximately 120,000 people have fled the area, many of whom had already been displaced multiple times, including by the devastating earthquakes last February.

Attacks from all directions

Israel's ongoing war on Gaza highlights the fragile situation in Syria. The spill-over of this conflict has intensified tensions among foreign entities in the country, leading to a series of tit-for-tat attacks.

Israel has faced a growing barrage of missiles and drones, with attacks extending farther from the border. In response, Tel Aviv has escalated its offensive, carrying out near-daily strikes and targeting high-profile Iranian IRGC commanders.

Similarly, there has been a surge in attacks against US forces in Syria, aimed at pressuring for a ceasefire in Gaza and their expulsion from the country. This has resulted in retaliatory responses against the groups involved.

Meanwhile, the Turkish military has ramped up its offensive against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in response to an attack attributed to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in Ankara in October.

Turkish air strikes, targeting vital infrastructure, have deprived nearly one million people of water and electricity for weeks.

Further exacerbating the situation in the northeast is the ongoing conflict between local tribal forces and the SDF in Deir ez-Zor. These escalations stem from long-standing grievances, with the cash-strapped Kurdish-led self-administration failing to provide essential services to ensure basic rights.

The Islamic State (IS) has also intensified its operations, targeting not only military objectives but also civilians.

Enduring hardship

Amidst these challenges, Syrians continue to endure unparalleled hardship. The number of individuals in need of humanitarian assistance across Syria has risen to 16.7 million, up from 15.3 million in 2023.

Rising inflation, currency devaluation, and soaring commodity prices continue to drive up poverty rates and reliance on humanitarian aid.

However, despite the growing need, a severe shortage of donor funds has compelled the UN to suspend regular food aid in Syria, leaving millions vulnerable to hunger.

Read more: Aid cuts compound already miserable humanitarian situation in Syria

Politically, the UN-led process in Geneva has stalled, making no progress since mid-2022. Similarly, the Arab normalisation efforts with al-Assad have hit a roadblock.

The regime's hesitation to fulfil proposed steps, such as combating narcotics and facilitating refugee returns, appears to have put these normalisation efforts on hold, along with al-Assad's hope for an economic boost.

Additionally, Damascus' normalisation talks with Turkey have faltered, hindered by President Erdogan's reelection and conflicting priorities between the two nations, preventing any significant headway.

Butterfly effect

These crises vividly illustrate Syria's fragility and its inevitable descent into further deterioration, underscoring the pressing need for a departure from the current conflict management approach.

While Syrians bear the brunt of these escalating crises, the butterfly effect they create extends far beyond the country's borders, as recent history has shown.

The ripple effect of the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October serves as a stark reminder of how one incident can spiral into widespread destabilisation worldwide, defying prediction.

This incident joins a long list of surprising moments, such as Bouazizi's self-immolation sparking the Arab Spring or IS's sudden capture of Mosul, which enabled the group to terrorize the world.

These events underscore that the 7 October attack is not an isolated incident but part of a larger pattern of unpredictable and far-reaching consequences amplified by a fragile region.

The direct military involvement of numerous countries in the Syrian conflict is why the country is often referred to as a graveyard for predictions.

The intricate network of multiple simmering conflicts in Syria starkly illustrates the precariousness of the situation, poised for a potentially explosive event with far-reaching consequences at any moment.

Persisting with the current approach of dealing with Syria only when convenient will only hasten the countdown, jeopardising the fate of the entire region.