The runup and aftermath of 7 October offer invaluable lessons

At the same time, radicalism in Israel and the settlements surged and was given cover by Benjamin Netanyahu's most recent and most right-wing government, which was stuffed with fascist ministers bent on denying Palestinian rights.

Diplomatic initiatives to break the deadlock and establish a Palestinian state were largely absent during this phase. Some Arab states signed separate peace deals with Israel, which secured them favourable trade deals and US weapons.

Palestinian politics remains divided. Hamas favoured armed resistance, while the Palestinian Authority (PA), based in Ramallah and which collaborates with Israel on security matters—had become increasingly unpopular.

That was the situation, and the grievances existed on October 6. It set the stage for the surprise events of the following day.

Assault and retaliation era

The second era was the assault era, which witnessed the now infamous 7 October attack on Israel by Hamas. Notably, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres pointed out that the attack "did not happen in a vacuum".

It was anything but spontaneous.

Military activity was not confined to Gaza. Limited skirmishes between Hezbollah and Israel unfolded in southern Lebanon, while Houthis launched assaults in the Red Sea, targeting merchant ships heading to Israel in solidarity with Gaza.

In Iraq and Syria, reciprocal attacks were exchanged between Iranian and American militias. It seemed that Israeli and US interests were being hit from all sides.

Israel's brutal retaliation began most notably on 8 October. It has killed more than 30,000 Palestinians to date—mostly women and children.

Read more: Western governments and Gaza's graveyard of children

The war has destroyed much of Gaza's infrastructure, including its hospitals, schools, roads, and buildings. An estimated 1.5 million Gazans are displaced—most crammed into the southernmost tip of the Strip in Rafah.

Heightened tensions in the West Bank threaten to impact the security and stability of Jordan. Across the Middle East, the risk is of igniting dormant tensions.

Holistic framework needed

A holistic and collaborative framework is paramount to establishing an international-regional strategy that diverges from the containment policy of 6 October, mitigates against the resurgence of 7 October assaults, and precludes 8 October reprisals.

First, a ceasefire in Gaza is an urgent priority. A temporary truce would allow the entry of humanitarian aid and facilitate the exchange of prisoners.

Importantly, it would also help to calm the prevailing tense atmosphere in Israel, the Palestinian territories, and across the broader region.

Envisioned alongside the ceasefire is the formation of a Palestinian governance model capable of administratively uniting Gaza and the West Bank.

This requires substantial reforms within the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO), encompassing a strategic plan for Gaza's reconstruction and the implementation of Arab and international security oversight.

Alongside this, Netanyahu's hardline coalition needs to go. A new and more realistic Israeli government that is willing to engage constructively with Palestinians is critical for progress towards peace.

Read more: Benny Gantz: The former Israeli army chief who could replace Netanyahu

Justice and security

Central to this vision is initiating a political dialogue that culminates in recognising a Palestinian state. A Western official aptly captured the essence of this strategy as follows:

"There is no justice for the Palestinians without security for Israel. There is no security for Israel without justice for the Palestinians. Each party must understand that its objectives cannot be realised without the other also achieving its goals."

It underscores the interdependence of justice and security for both peoples. A sustainable solution requires mutual recognition and the accommodation of each other's fundamental aspirations.

It all sounds so simple. If only. In the Middle East, we are not accustomed to doing things the easy way.

Few things better illustrate that than the recent deepening of the chasm between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA). Hopes for their reconciliation are, as a result, slimmer than ever.

Diametric opposition

Meanwhile, Hamas and Israel each hold diametrically opposed views of victory and defeat.

Hardliners govern Israel, which is shifting further to the right as a society. Meanwhile, Netanyahu appears to be willing to go to almost any length to avoid accountability and trial.

Internationally, Iran seeks its place within the new regional order. On its part, the US wants to reduce its Middle East footprint, while China and Russia are on stand-by to step into any vacuum the US leaves.

How those crucial October hours are viewed depends on your perspective. Some see it as a catastrophe. Others celebrate it. Some see it as a defeat, others see it as victory. Many see it as a new phase in this long-running war of attrition.

Perspectives vary, too. Some are focused on the immediate future, looking in days, weeks, and months, while others look ahead over decades.

A seasoned Western diplomat with over 40 years of experience in various Arab capitals said: "Israel must recognise that its security is linked to meeting Palestinian demands. This realisation could take years."

And since it may take years, the most viable short-term future is yet more destruction, tragedy, and agony.

Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse…