Will Tony Blair play a peacekeeping role in Gaza?

Following his appointment in 2007 as a Special Envoy on behalf of the International Quartet — comprising the US, the UN, the EU and Russia, set up to resolve a number of outstanding regional issues — Blair worked tirelessly to break the impasse, even if his efforts were not always widely appreciated.

In many respects, Blair was given an impossible job, as neither the Israelis nor the Palestinians showed much commitment to resolving their differences during the eight years Blair held the post, for which he received no payment.

Even so, Blair believed the best way to nudge the peace process in the right direction was to work for Palestinian economic empowerment.

He believed that economic development — along with money poured into political institutions — would make a Palestinian state more viable and less likely to fall under the domination of Hamas or another extremist organisation.

Although he attracted criticism for only working part-time in his envoy role, Blair nevertheless managed to achieve a number of modest improvements for Palestinians living in the West Bank, such as pushing the Israelis to reduce the number of checkpoints in the occupied territory. He also helped to make it easier for Palestinian businesspeople to use the Allenby crossing to and from Jordan.

Arguably, the high point of Blair's mission came in 2013 when the Obama administration authorised Blair to oversee a $4bn investment drive for the Occupied Territories aimed at kickstarting the Palestinian economy.

A team of experts assembled by Blair to implement the project predicted the plan could increase Palestinian GDP by 50% over three years, cut unemployment in the region by two-thirds from 21% to 8% and raise the minimum wage by 40%.

The plan's achievements were more modest, not least because of restrictions imposed by Israel, which limited the scope of the development programme.

Nevertheless, Blair's involvement saw a notable improvement in living standards in major Palestinian cities such as Ramallah, even if the economic benefits were undermined by the corrupt practices of some Palestinian officials, while the Christian town of Bethlehem reported a notable increase in its tourism trade.

As the Middle East commentator Tom Gross later commented on the former prime minister's performance, "Blair had the right idea much more than he is given credit for. He wanted to build peace from the ground up rather than just make grand gestures or take part in photo-ops."

Criticism from all sides

Blair's Special Envoy role was not without its critics.

There were complaints from both Israeli and Palestinian officials that he could appear arrogant and patronising, with both sides suggesting he did not spend a sufficient amount of time in the region to fully grasp the strength of feeling felt on key issues.

By the time he resigned from the role in May 2015, Blair's relationship with the leadership of the Palestinian Authority (PA) had almost completely broken down.

"This has come as no surprise," the veteran Palestinian campaigner Hanan Ashrawi commented when news of his resignation eventually emerged.

"It has long been clear that nothing at all was getting done."

Reports also surfaced that the US and EU had grown so frustrated with Blair's poor relationship with the Palestinian leadership that they had begun pushing for his resignation.

A spokesperson for the PA went even further, declaring that Blair has been "a persona non grata for a while.

"He hasn't been assuming his responsibility for a long time, so him being in the position or not is almost the same," they said.

Blair's numerous dealings with prominent Arab leaders also raised concerns with the Israelis, who increasingly came to see him as irrelevant when it came to reviving the peace process.

Statesman-for-hire

Another factor that complicated Blair's role was that, prior to creating the Tony Blair Institute in 2016, the former premier spent much of his time acting as a statesman-for-hire with a number of controversial clients.

Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan's former ruler, hired him as a consultant after a 2011 anti-government uprising. He also worked for the authorities in Kuwait, Columbia and Vietnam.

Despite these criticisms, Blair's tenure as a Special Envoy does not appear to have damaged his standing in the eyes of key Gulf states. On the contrary, recent studies of the TBI's activities indicate he has struck a number of lucrative business deals with them.

Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates are among several Arab states that are said to rely on the former prime minister's organisation for strategic advice.

In Bahrain, the institute has been advising the kingdom on its ambitious government modernisation programme, while Blair's organisation is also reported to have advised the Saudis on their own Vision 2030 modernisation programme.

Meanwhile, Blair's long-established links to the UAE were thrown into the spotlight in December during a prominent appearance at the COP28 climate change summit, where he met multiple world leaders.

The Blair Institute currently runs its own office in Abu Dhabi, where staff are tasked with helping to devise political strategies for governments within the Gulf Cooperation Council, comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

The recent expansion in the TBI's activities is reflected in its recently published accounts, which show that its income from foreign governments rose by almost 50% during the past year.

To achieve this uplift, the institute has sought to place more emphasis on its international consultancy operation, scaling down the number of senior policy staff in London while increasing recruitment abroad.

Blair's organisation is also said to benefit from an extensive list of donors, including the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and Lloyds Banking Group.

This recent increase in activity has raised the prospect that the former prime minister might yet again be invited to take on a new peacekeeping role in the region. He is being slated to oversee humanitarian aid into Gaza once Israel wraps up its war.

A recent report in the Ynet media outlet claimed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to draw on Blair's experience as a former envoy to the region to address international concerns over the civilian cost of Israel's campaign in Gaza.

Whether Blair actually takes up the role remains to be seen and will depend to a large extent on the situation in Gaza once Israel's military offensive is over.

But the fact that the former prime minister is even being considered for a new peace role shows that, for all Blair's previous mistakes in the region, his stature as one of the world's leading political operators remains undiminished.