Iran's regional provocation turns into a US election issue

From late October onwards, Iranian-backed groups had launched attacks against US bases in Syria and Iraq, while the constant threat of Hezbollah attacks from southern Lebanon has resulted in large swathes of northern Israel being left deserted.

Attacks carried out by Yemen's Houthi rebels against merchant shipping in the Red Sea, meanwhile, have caused significant disruption to one of the world's major trade routes, prompting fears that it could ultimately cause a global inflationary spiral.

Many of these attacks, moreover, have been carried out using equipment supplied by Iran, such as drones and ballistic missiles.

And while US military commanders are in no doubt that Iran has been actively encouraging attacks against their assets in the region, they have so far limited their response to the groups held responsible for carrying out the attacks.

Thus, US forces have bombed bases used by Iranian-backed groups in Syria and Iraq, while the US Navy has targeted Houthi bases used to attack shipping in the Red Sea.

This week's attack against a US base in northern Jordan — which resulted in the deaths of three US service personnel with another 34 being injured — could prove to be a pivotal moment in this increasingly deadly conflict.

Not only has the attack on the US base resulted in the first American fatalities since the 7 October attacks, but claims by the Iranian-backed Islamic Resistance of Iraq that it carried out the attack, in which an Iranian-made drone was involved, have added significantly to tensions between Washington and Tehran.

Speaking shortly after news of the attack took place, US President Joe Biden made it clear he believed Iran was directly responsible for the deaths of the three American soldiers and pledged that Washington would respond  "at a time and in a manner of our choosing".

Eye on elections

With the US now fully entering presidential election mode and with Biden campaigning to win a second term in office in November's poll, Iran's involvement in constant acts of provocation is rapidly turning into a major election issue.

While former US President Donald Trump has characteristically sought to dominate the headlines by warning that the world is on the "brink of World War Three", senior Republicans such as South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham are backing calls for "a clear, lethal and overwhelming response".

The mounting Republican clamour for action certainly places Biden in a difficult position. Prior to the 7 October attacks, the White House was keen to highlight the benefits its quiet diplomacy with Tehran had achieved, pointing out that it had brought attacks against US forces in the region to a standstill.

This assertion, though, can no longer be made with groups linked to Iran's so-called "axis of resistance" — which includes Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis — actively taking part in attacks against the US and its allies.

Consequently, officials at the Pentagon are said to be giving serious consideration to launching retaliatory strikes against Iran, even though the Biden administration continues to insist it has no desire to provoke a wider conflict with Tehran.

That said, there is a general consensus in Washington that this week's drone strike against US forces in Jordan has crossed an unstated red line, one that will require a firm response from the Biden administration, if for no other reason than to reassert the president's credentials as an effective commander-in-chief ahead of November's election.

White House quandary

Having promised a "very consequential" response to the Jordan attack, the White House now finds itself in a quandary as it weighs up its options, which range from directly targeting Iranian military bases linked to recent attacks against the US to eliminating Revolutionary Guard positions in Syria.

Either way, it is clear that the undeclared war between the US and Iran, one that has been underway for more than four decades, is about to enter an infinitely more dangerous phase, one where the prospect of a direct confrontation between Washington and Tehran cannot be ruled out.

While Iran makes no secret of its desire to bring Washington's long-standing involvement in the region to an end, Biden may find he has no option but to take a tough line with Tehran if he wants to win re-election — an approach that is likely to increase tensions in the region, not calm them.