Why Turkey was Blinken's first stop on regional tour discussing post-war Gaza

During the administration of President Donald Trump, a letter to Erdoğan threatened  "to destroy the economy" in what looked like a recent low point in relations.  

Generally, the US has reacted coolly towards provocative statements from Erdoğan, stopping short of responding every time, instead making its position and objections known occasionally and via a variety of ways.

Serious escalation

But there were serious problems last October.

During Turkish military operations in northeastern Syria against the People's Protection Units, or YPG, a Turkish unmanned aircraft was shot down by US F-16s after it got too close to US forces in the area.

Read more: Lifting the veil on US-Turkey escalation in Syria

One NATO ally turning its guns on another is highly unusual, not least when they are on the same fighter planes Turkey wishes to buy from the US.

The Biden administration has told Turkey that it is in favour of the jet sale going through, but it has no say over the final clearance being given in Congress. Lawmakers there are holding up approval, making Turkey's approval of Sweden's membership of NATO conditional.

There are also voices in Congress seeking assurances that the F-16s will not be used in the Aegean Sea, or Eastern Mediterranean against Greece or in Syria against the YPG, a group Turkey sees as a terrorist organisation but with which the US has links on the ground.

Expansion impasse

Fidan reiterated to Blinken that the final decision on Sweden's NATO membership process belongs to the Turkish Parliament, just as the F-16 decision lies with the Congress.

The impasse over fighter jets and NATO expansion comes with Blinken putting together a framework for dealing with the Gaza war. He is now wrapping up a regional tour in a bid to get consensus and will want Turkey on board with his efforts, or at least to prevent the country from spoiling them.

According to diplomatic sources who asked to remain anonymous, Blinken brought up how his hosts could contribute to future reconstruction efforts in Gaza before he left Turkey. He also addressed the possibility of Turkish participation in any multi-national force established and deployed in the region to keep any subsequent peace.

Furthermore, Turkey and the US agreed that there is a very serious risk of the spread of the Gaza conflict.  Neither country wants the fighting to spread.

Read more: As slain leaders commemorated, Iraq and Iran attacked yet again

But they have differing views on the reasons behind the war, the behaviour of those directly involved and the way out. Turkey backs an immediate ceasefire, uninterrupted humanitarian aid and the start of negotiations for a two-state solution.

Issue of friction

Another major issue of friction between the two allies, which also came up at Blinken's meetings in Ankara, was US relations with the YPG in Syria.

Turkey criticises – and blames – the US for providing a protective umbrella and military hardware to what Ankara sees as a terror organisation that forms the backbone of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

The US works with YPG and SDF as local partners in the fight against Daesh. Washington denies that the YPG is the Syrian equivalent of the PKK, the Kurdish Worker's Party that is on the US list of designated terrorist groups.

This disagreement will continue to poison relations between the two NATO allies as long as the US maintains its links with the YPG.

Wider agenda

The wider agenda of Blinken's talks in Istanbul included the war in Ukraine, security around the Black Sea, grain transport, relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and the prospects for a peace agreement between them.

Iran will also have been discussed due to its central role in the region, not limited to the war in Gaza. Turkey's relations with Iran are uneasy in many respects, but they are on speaking terms. The countries also agree on many aspects of the war in Gaza.

This likely meant Turkey offered to help regulate relations with Iran, whose proxies in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq are causing serious problems.

No press conference

There was no joint press conference after the Fidan-Blinken meeting and no public statement on the talks.

Fidan, a former long-serving head of Turkey's intelligence services, has brought a sense of secrecy to how he runs the country's foreign affairs. The silence can be interpreted in two ways, either as a deliberate decision not to say anything until things are in order or as a desire not to reveal differences of opinion.

The US State Department did make a statement. It said that during his meeting with Erdoğan, Blinken "emphasised the need to prevent the conflict from spreading, secure the release of the hostages, expand humanitarian assistance and reduce civilian casualties, and work toward a broader, lasting regional peace that ensures Israel's security and advances the establishment of a Palestinian state".

Turkey's importance

Turkey welcomed its status as the first stop on the US Secretary of State's important regional tour. Turkey wants to be part of efforts to end the war in Gaza and find a place for itself in a future process, in whatever capacity.

Erdoğan's ruling AKP party treats the Palestinian issue as a priority and has been trying to capitalise on it both in domestic and international politics.

Blinken's itinerary took him to Greece next, a schedule reminiscent of a previous diplomatic era when high-level Washington officials always included both countries early in their tours of NATO's southern flank, usually starting with Turkey. The strains between Washington and Ankara have meant Turkey has sometimes come second to Greece.

After he left Istanbul, Blinken met Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis received in Hania, Crete, home to the US Naval Support Activity in the country. Turkey is uneasy with the US presence on the island, not least due to the tensions between it and Greece in the eastern Mediterranean.

Throughout his tour, Blinken is aiming to secure a peace process that would end an unpopular war and also secure Israel's interests in the region. The countries he is visiting can help. But the outcome will depend on Israel and its complex and divided domestic politics and sensitive international position.