Egypt weighs its options as Gaza refugee surge becomes real possibility

Difficult test

A massive exodus of Gaza's residents into Egypt through the shared border between Sinai and Gaza will be a difficult test for the Egyptian army, which has a limited presence in Egypt's north-eastern territory, which shares a border with the Palestinian territory.

The 1979 peace treaty between Egypt and Israel limits Egyptian troop presence in the Sinai — especially in its northern part — to a minimum.

Even if it has the military force required to repel an influx of Gaza's residents into Sinai, the Egyptian army will be reluctant to do this.

Egypt, which has been using all means at its disposal to put an end to the current Israeli onslaught on Gaza, does not want to be seen as the Arab country that uses force against the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians fleeing the horror that Israel has subjected them to for the past two months.

AFP

During Israel's war on Gaza in 2008, when thousands of Palestinians forced their way into Sinai after destroying parts of the security wall between Egypt and Gaza, Egyptian forces did not stop them. They will unlikely stop them this time, either.

"Once the actual displacement of the residents of Gaza happens, Egypt cannot stop it," Emad Gad, a researcher at local think tank, Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, told Al Majalla.

"Egypt will not be seen as a force killing Palestinians fleeing a dire situation."

Gad said Egypt has to act firmly to prevent this displacement from happening. It has followed a two-pronged policy that has achieved considerable success until now.

Cairo has been pressing for the entry of humanitarian relief aid into Gaza from the Rafah crossing point on the shared border with the Palestinian enclave. So far, it has been able to get hundreds of trucks in, carrying food, water, and medical supplies.

A week-long truce brokered by Egypt and Qatar in late November allowed for the entry of fuel into the coastal territory for the first time since the breakout of hostilities between Israel and Hamas on 7 October.

Egypt also made its rejection of the displacement of the residents of Gaza clear with its president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, repeating in press conferences with European leaders multiple times his rejection of any plan to kick Palestinians out of their land, which would deal a devastating blow to the Palestinian cause.

"Egypt will not allow this liquidation to happen at its own expense," he said.

AFP

In pictures: Displaced Palestinians crowd into tiny tent cities in southern Gaza

Strong case

Egypt has good reason to reject the resettlement of Gaza's 2.3 million Palestinian population. It is a staunch backer of Palestinian statehood rights and believes such a move would set a precedent that would encourage Israel to pursue the same strategy in the Occupied West Bank and try to kick Palestinians living there into Jordan, thus effectively imposing a final solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

"This will mean that there will be a people, but no land where they can establish their own state," el-Sisi said at a press briefing with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Cairo on 18 October.

AFP

Read more: Why Egypt rejects a Palestinian population transfer from Gaza

Egypt also has legitimate security reasons for rejecting the resettlement of Gaza's residents in Sinai, warning such a move would jeopardise its peace treaty with Israel.

Once they settle down in Sinai, el-Sisi said at the same press briefing, the Palestinians might use the Sinai to launch attacks against Israel.

On 8 November, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry also warned that the forced expulsion of Palestinians from their land would fuel revenge and radicalism that could morph into the emergence of terrorist groups that could not only launch attacks against Israel but also threaten the security of the Suez Canal — a vital maritime gateway for international trade — which is in close proximity to the Sinai.

This year, Egypt had declared Sinai — a 60,000-square-kilometre territory — free from terrorism, having defeated a branch of the Islamic State (IS) there.

Read more: IS spectre disappears from Sinai for first time in decade

Far from helpless

Egypt has so far been utilising political and diplomatic cards to apply pressure on Israel and its international backers to prevent it from pushing out Palestinians.

AFP

Shoukry visited Washington, D.C., to lobby against this prospect at influential American institutions and think tanks and speak to American media about the dangers entailed in this scenario for Egypt, the region and the world. El-Sisi also continues to raise the same issue with every visiting foreign official.

The Egyptian leader seems to have created a consensus among these officials, having succeeded in clarifying the adverse effects this displacement would have for Egypt and the region.

In this regard, observers believe Egyptian efforts have paid off, having convinced some influential world leaders of the dangers of this scenario.

"Leaders who support Israel have come out to express opposition to the relocation of the Palestinians of Gaza outside their territory," Akram Badr Eddine, a political science professor at Cairo University, told Al Majalla.

US President Joe Biden has spoken against this displacement several times in the past few weeks.

On 2 December, US Vice President Kamala Harris told el-Sisi in Dubai, where both were attending COP28, that the US would not allow the relocations of the Palestinians.

Nevertheless, a significant shift happened in Egypt's discourse on Gaza on 4 December. Egyptian Minister of Defence, Mohamed Zaki, spoke, for the first time, about the war raging on in the Palestinian territory.

He referred to what he described as an 'uncalculated escalation' on the Palestinian front, which he said threatened to liquidate the Palestinian cause.

"In today's world, there is no room for the weak," he said at the opening of Egypt's Defence Expo, the Arab country's most important defence exhibition.

Some observers view Zaki's comments as a sign that the military establishment is exploring its own options. This comes amid escalating calls for Egyptian military action inside the Palestinian territory for the creation of a buffer zone in southern Gaza where the territory's residents will be shielded from Israeli attacks.

This can, of course, pit Egypt against Israel militarily for the first time since the two countries signed peace in 1979, opening the door for the collapse of this peace — a prospect the Egyptian president has warned against repeatedly in the past weeks.