Buying time

Until then, Israel has renewed its slaughter of Palestinian civilians, but this time, the US has been conspicuously absent from the region.

This contrasts with its intense diplomatic activity at the start of the conflict when Washington aimed to warn regional powers about the repercussions of intervention and broaden the scope of the war.

Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden, alongside Secretary of State Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, has emphasised the need to minimise civilian casualties in Gaza, referring to it as the "centre of gravity" governing the conflict. He characterised civilian protection as both a moral responsibility and a strategic necessity.

Despite Austin's comments, the US has not expressed the best way to do this, which clearly is: reaching a lasting ceasefire and then turning that into a permanent end to hostilities.

On its part, Egypt is clearly worried that Israel is trying to push the Palestinian population of Gaza into the Sinai, forcing a second Nakba.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said: "Forced displacement and mass transfer, rejected by the world and considered a violation of international law, remains Israel's goal."

"This is not only through statements and calls by Israeli officials but also through creating a bitter reality on the ground aiming at the expulsion of Gaza's Palestinian population from their land, isolating them from their homeland and seizing it."

But with the Egyptian economy already strained, the impact of a potential new wave of forced migration worries Egypt but also  Europe, which doesn't want more migrants showing up on its shores.

Read more: Europe moves to boost ties with Egypt amid Israel's war on Gaza

Egypt's position on the issue has received high-level backing. US Vice President Kamala Harris issued a joint statement with Cairo during a meeting on the sidelines of the COP28 climate conference in Dubai. 

Both countries emphatically reject the forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza or the West Bank, the Gaza blockade, or the redrawing of Gaza's borders.

Israel insists that a buffer zone is key to its future security plans for Gaza. Israeli sources have said: "This does not mean that Israel will take land from Gaza, but rather signifies the establishment of secure zones within it, with its status, to limit the Palestinians' ability to enter Israel."

Reuters reported recently that Israel informed several Arab countries of its desire to establish a buffer zone on the Palestinian side of Gaza's borders to prevent any future attacks as part of proposals for the situation in the region after the war.

But there hasn't been any official comment from international or regional players regarding Israel's desired "buffer zone".

Political ambiguity

This raises questions about the US position and what Washington wants to achieve if it pressures Israel into halting its military onslaught.

Does Washington want to expand Arab mediation to include other Arab countries – especially Saudi Arabia – with Riyadh kept outside the talks circle despite its well-known disapproval of Hamas?

It could be that the White House wants better links to be set up across the Middle East and is encouraging Israel to move toward diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia.

New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman wrote in November: "You don't need to speak Arabic, Hebrew or Persian to understand that Iran-backed Hamas launched its war to stymie the Saudi-Israel normalisation and prevent Tehran from being isolated."

Saudi-Israel normalisation still possible

Netanyahu suggested the possibility of continuing to normalise relations with Saudi Arabia after the end of Israel's war on Gaza.

During his conversation with American businessman Elon Musk – who arrived in Israel on 27 November and visited one of the Israeli settlements attacked by Hamas on 7 October  – Netanyahu said:

 "After defeating Hamas, we will be able to return to peace with Saudi Arabia, and I believe we will be able to expand the circle of peace with Arab countries beyond our ambitious expectations … But first, we have to win."

It seems that the war in Gaza has not altered Netanyahu's view of normalising relations with Riyadh.

Speaking to CNN Arabic in late September, he said: "The Saudis made a mistake in not joining the Abraham Accords and in keeping themselves out of it."

When asked about the concessions Israel will specifically offer to the Palestinians in exchange for normalisation with Saudi Arabia, he replied: "It's better to bring the entire package at once. I believe making peace with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and essentially starting by ending the Arab-Israeli conflict will help us end the Palestinian-Israeli conflict."

"They believe you must first end the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and then go to the Arab world from the inside out. I think the outside-in approach has a much greater chance of ending both conflicts with Arab countries and with the Palestinians."

Asked if bringing a halt to Israeli settlers in the West Bank and other designated areas is on the table, Netanyahu replied: "I will not jeopardise Israel's national interests and security, and I will not risk success by discussing this publicly."

Two-state solution

US ambiguity in its positions on Gaza seems to reflect more than its concern over who will govern it if Hamas is expelled. In fact, it's quite possible that it's moving toward support for a two-state solution.

Washington realises Israel's need for a peace process with the Palestinian Authority and that Israel cannot exit Gaza without a credible Palestinian partner to govern there.

The US wants to end the war by expanding the circle of mediators, involving Saudi Arabia, and placing the Abraham Accords on the table in exchange for a final settlement that has not yet taken shape.