The growing drone threat against Israel from Syria

The prevailing assumption, seemingly embraced by the Israeli Army, is that the drone likely originated from southern Syria. Many who entertain this belief also speculate about Hezbollah's potential involvement in the drone attack. This speculation arises from Hezbollah's announcement about the death of seven fighters on the same day as the drone attack, without disclosing the location of their demise.

Delving deeper into the matter, local sources in Syria have claimed that the casualties suffered by Hezbollah, at least to some extent, were a consequence of the Israeli airstrike specifically targeting Hezbollah positions in the Syrian city of Homs. Significantly, this incident stands out as the deadliest single-day toll for Hezbollah members since the onset of the party's confrontations with Israel on October 8th.

If these reports prove accurate, it indicates that Israel might harbor suspicions about Hezbollah, given its substantial influence in southern Syria, being directly involved in the drone attack. The absence of acknowledgment from either party may stem from a shared interest in preventing further escalations.

Nevertheless, some Israeli analysts contend that the drone attack originated from northeast Syria. The considerable distance of this region from the frontlines with Israel renders it a more strategic launch point for the drone compared to the southern part of Syria, which is subject to closer monitoring by Israel. These analysts have specifically implicated the Iranian-backed Imam Hussein Brigade, established in Syria in 2016, as the group responsible for the attack.

Regardless of which account accurately portrays the details of the November 10 attack, both suggest the potential for drone attacks from either location. The crucial detail lies not in the launch point but in the trajectory of the drone. All reports confirm that the drone approached Eilat from the direction of Jordan, covering hundreds of kilometers across its airspace.

The choice of Jordan as a transit route for the drone is because Israel perceives its border with it as a low-risk zone. Consequently, Tel Aviv directs its sensors, radars, and patrol aircraft to regions where the risk of attacks is deemed higher, such as southern Syria. The rugged terrain along the Jordan-Eilat border adds complexity to drone detection and provides cover for the devices approaching from a distance at low altitudes.

Moreover, the drone's distinctive features facilitated its discreet flight to the target without triggering alarms. Its slow speed, ability to fly at low altitudes, programmable deviation from a straight path, and compact size collectively contribute to its elusive nature, presenting challenges for radar detection, especially as not all radar systems are optimized for identifying such unmanned aerial vehicles.

As ceasefire negotiations face obstacles and ground operations persist in Gaza, the recent drone attack from Syria will unlikely be the last. Anticipating this, the Israeli army is likely to bolster security measures along the Jordanian border to avoid future surprises. However, the technical challenges outlined earlier, Israel's military engagement on various fronts, and the capability of Iranian-backed groups to deploy multiple and more advanced drones, diminish the likelihood of Israel completely neutralizing the threats posed by these unmanned vehicles.

Therefore, a diplomatic resolution for the Gaza situation stands as the only guaranteed means to prevent further escalation against Israel, both domestically and regionally.