AI and the future of jobs

In the United States, 4,000 jobs were lost in May alone, according to data collected by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which quoted OpenAI, ChatGPT's maker, as saying that 10% of the tasks of 80% of the US workforce will be affected by large language models (LLMs), i.e., AI-enabled word processing systems.

The Writers Guild of America, especially members from the Hollywood film industry, has been on strike for weeks to demand that AI, especially generative content, be subject to regulations for fear of its effects on their work, as well as for pay increases and higher returns from content streaming platforms.

According to a study by the Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute for Private Enterprise, jobs held by American women are 79% more likely to be affected by automation, compared with 58% for men.

Collaboration of humans and machines

Humans may collaborate with AI to improve their performance, potentially increasing the number of jobs or creating new ones in areas that require such collaboration. AI, especially generative, requires a lot of human input to improve its performance.

LLMs, for example, train through human input that improves performance as humans evaluate LLM output, focusing on positively assessed outcomes and neglecting negatively assessed ones. A paper released in May describes how these models could collapse in the absence of a human role.

Thus, jobs may change qualitatively rather than quantitatively in management, programming, customer service, legal services, education, financial services, engineering, and human resources, where humans will still have a role to play in improving AI systems and evaluating their outputs.

Administrators, for example, won't be able to let AI respond to emails without reviewing content, nor will programmers be able to use AI-created software without assessing its quality. It will be difficult for schools and universities to rely exclusively on AI and eliminate human teachers.

In the Middle East and North Africa

In our region, the conclusions reached by PwC drew attention. In the fourth annual edition of its report, The Middle East Workforce Hopes and Fears survey, workers are enthusiastic about adopting AI and support plans to reduce carbon emissions, build a sustainable economic future, and diversify economies.

Read more: Restrictive AI laws and 'false hope' hinder technological innovation in Tunisia

In terms of AI adoption, respondents agree that they need to improve their skills and learn new ones, setting a five-year horizon for that.

According to the report, 52% of respondents from the region, compared to 36% globally, believe their jobs will change over the next five years, requiring them to develop existing and acquired skills.

In terms of "green" skills, 62%, compared to 39% globally, believe these skills are essential to shaping their careers in the current decade. About 46% of respondents from the region, compared to 31% globally, are optimistic about AI's ability to improve their jobs rather than pessimistic about eliminating them.

Participants are mainly from Egypt (43%), Saudi Arabia and Qatar (41% each), and the United Arab Emirates (39%). Around 39% of the total, compared to 30% globally, are likely to move to other jobs this year, with 37% of participants born in the 1990s and 40% in the 2000s.

This indicates optimism about the changes, especially the arrival of AI to our region, led by a young generation of workers.

The UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), in a report that may confirm the changing job requirements in our region rather than the loss of jobs with AI arrival, points out that between June 2020 and March 2023, the Middle East and North Africa virtual-world-related jobs market posted 2,555,147 job vacancies.

Read more: How the Arab world is adopting a proactive approach to AI

The report divided jobs between 411 soft-skills jobs and 16,765 technical-skills jobs in the light of what it called the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

The jobs required include computer science, data analysis, and problem solving, with financial, accounting, hotel, restaurant, and commercial services being the most demanding sectors. This tangible development in AI-driven digitised sectors promises our region with more sustainable and diversified economies, ESCWA said.

Integration of workers and AI

Various economic sectors are witnessing remarkable progress with AI's integration into their operations.

For example, operating systems supported by this technology in the manufacturing sector play a positive role in production processes, improve efficiency, and reduce costs, according to a report by Forbes.

Machine learning (ML) algorithms can analyse huge data sets and develop themselves, enabling proactive maintenance, error detection, and improved supply chain management.

The positive effects include improved productivity and cost savings, enhanced quality control and defect detection, and increased workplace safety through the collaboration of humans and robots.

The negative effects include job cuts, worker anxiety about unemployment, excessive reliance on technology, and the potential risk of automated systems failing.

In another example, AI's impact in healthcare is enormous, with the ability to transform diagnosis, treatment, and patient care to higher levels, according to Forbes.

ML algorithms can analyse large amounts of medical data, helping diagnose diseases, predict outcomes, and suggest personalised treatment plans. AI is accelerating drug discovery, helping to develop innovative treatments.

The most positive effects In this sector are improving accuracy and speed in diagnosis, enhancing treatment planning and personalised medicine, and accelerating drug discovery and medical research.

Negative impacts include concerns about privacy and data security, ethical problems with the division of decision-making responsibilities between AI and healthcare professionals, and the potential risks of AI algorithm bias in favour of programmers and their ethnic and/or social backgrounds.

In a third example, Forbes notes that the transport and logistics sector is undergoing a remarkable transformation thanks to AI innovations.

Self-driving cars, powered by AI algorithms, are revolutionising road safety, reducing congestion, and improving fuel consumption. AI-powered track improvement systems simplify logistics operations, resulting in faster delivery times and lower costs.

The positive effects appear to involve safer transportation systems with self-driving cars, efficient logistics operations, faster delivery times, and improved sustainability through improved fuel consumption.

However, there are negative consequences, such as eliminating drivers and related professions, ethical problems related to accident responsibility and decision-making in self-driving cars, and cybersecurity gaps in transportation systems.

Thus, AI is reshaping economic sectors, with their workers and processes, promising to increase productivity, improve outcomes, and have exciting potential. However, it's necessary to approach its effects with caution, taking into account the possibility of abolishing functions and ethical concerns and prejudices that may arise.

It's essential to strike a balance between technological development and human well-being.

Adopting AI with responsible regulation, ethical frameworks, and people-centred orientation will unlock its positive potential, leading to a future that strengthens human capabilities and elevates sectors.