Are Iraq's sectarian leaders laying the groundwork for a theocracy?

Groundwork being laid

The decision over Eid al-Ghadeer marks a substantial shift toward sectarian ascendancy. It's important to note that this is the first time such a decision has been made without facing backlash from civil society groups or legislative bodies responsible for protecting Iraq's status as a civil state.

This phenomenon seems to be touching every corner of Iraq. Politicians, opinion leaders, and decision-makers are racing to be seen present in religious ceremonies — especially those affiliated with the dominant sect.

By doing this, they demonstrate their loyalty to the clergy and acknowledge their growing power that transcends the religious domain.

As these elite continue to chip away at modern principles that the country supposedly adopted in 2003, Iraq inches toward becoming a purely theocratic state. It has become increasingly apparent that these acts are, in fact, laying the groundwork for the official declaration of a theocratic state.

To this end, laws are being proposed and passed that infringe on individual and civil liberties, such as the law prohibiting the sale of alcohol. This imposes the views of one religious group over others.

Additionally, parliamentarians are fast-tracking legislation that criminalises personal freedoms and creates a sense of sacredness, veneration, and dominance around symbols, sites, as well as religious and political figures.

At the same time, expressions of dissent are stifled — either blatantly or subtly through comedy show hosts.

Remaining freedoms stand on shaky ground

Iraq's remaining freedoms and democratic principles are standing on shaky ground. There is little room for optimism when a basic understanding of democracy and its importance is lacking in society.

Many factors have contributed to the current situation including the trajectory of modernisation, the quality of education, and the composition of the Iraqi leadership, among a multitude of other factors.

The scene in Iraq is similar to that of Lebanon — especially when viewed through the prism of its interactions with neighbouring countries.

Just as Syria's totalitarian political regime posed an enduring and immediate threat to democratic principles and public liberties in Lebanon, leading to its eventual submission, Iraq cannot be fundamentally different from its neighbour Iran, especially over the long term.

The principle of local sovereignty, which was originally established by the Western powers in the Peace of Westphalia, is not easily applicable in the Middle East, given its historical context and current realities.

In fact, the political framework of a neighbouring state, its unique sensitivities, and genuine diplomatic relations, if they exist, may have more influence on the establishment of a democratic structure than internal factors.

A pivotal consideration in this context lies in the calibre of the elite class. Notably, an orchestrated, long-term strategy has been embraced by participants within political Islamic parties, along with their interconnected financial, social, and cultural networks.

An agenda in the works since 2003

Over the years, they have diligently pursued a strategic agenda aimed at eroding the foundational pillars of the democratic and secular state that emerged in Iraq post-2003.

Their unity and unwavering commitment to their ideological campaign and political involvement have propelled them toward their desired goals.

Conversely, the civil and democratic elites harboured the misconception that toppling the former regime would be enough to reform Iraq's political framework, thereby safeguarding its democratic underpinnings without active, sustained effort.

This oversight has led them to neglect the realisation that democracy and its associated prerequisites demand an ongoing struggle for preservation — one that can rapidly unravel in the absence of consistent vigilance.

Iraq's gradual shift towards theocratic governance is intrinsically intertwined with the all-encompassing modern challenges besieging it. 

This trajectory is reinforced by the presence of inherent vulnerabilities, including its dependence on an oil-centric economy, a history of internal conflicts, and a multitude of other facets that collectively shape its existence.