India walks toward the New World on three roads

India is increasingly becoming a pivotal player in the current world order and its alliances can significantly shape global dynamics

India walks toward the New World on three roads

While Russia grapples with the aftermath of the Ukraine war and China faces scrutiny due to its escalation on Taiwan, there is a third country that deserves more attention: India.

Its significance lies not only in being the world's most populous country but also in its steady progress across political, economic, military, and technological spheres. Moreover, India's affiliations can significantly influence global dynamics, making it a pivotal player in the current world order.

Amid the battle for the new world order and direct military confrontations, India finds itself at the centre of a three-way competition. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is an expert at keeping his options open — carefully weighing offers from American President Joe Biden, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Leveraging India's strategic importance

India's strategic importance to these major powers is evident, and Modi recognises the leverage this provides him in shaping the country's future.

Russia has played a crucial role in India's efforts to compete against its sizable neighbour, China. Historically, Russia has been a significant military supplier to India, and several pending agreements, such as the "S-400" missile deal, remain crucial for New Delhi. These arms and equipment are essential, especially after the military tensions and clashes with China that occurred three years ago.

India's strategic importance to the three major powers (the US, China and Russia) is evident, and Modi recognises the leverage this provides him in shaping the country's future.

However, Modi is well aware of the limitations of Russian weapons, as demonstrated by over 500 days of warfare in Ukraine. The conflict revealed the actual efficacy of these armaments in real battles.

Despite this, Modi has chosen not to criticise the Kremlin, instead advocating for peace. Such actions have garnered attention from Western countries, and India finds itself strengthening ties with them.

Washington and Paris roll out the red carpet

Former US President Bill Clinton's visit to India 23 years ago opened doors, and President Biden capitalised on this to foster a new chapter in India-US relations.

The White House has set aside previous criticisms regarding human rights issues and past tensions with Modi, extending a warm welcome last June. Biden's invitation for Modi to address the US Congress showcased the intent to forge a robust relationship that will define the 21st century. 

Biden offered Modi a comprehensive deal, including combat aircraft engines, military equipment, and promises of support.

Subsequently, Modi's visit to France, where he participated in Bastille Day celebrations alongside President Emmanuel Macron, was marked by the awarding of a Medal of Honour, symbolising the strong strategic partnership between India and France, acknowledging India as a significant player in the future world.

Read more: It's a brave new world for Russia, China, and Europe

Following the pattern seen in Washington, Modi returned from Paris with an agreement to acquire Rafale planes and submarines. This move by the West aims to encourage India to distance itself from Russia and take a stance against China, which is actively investing in strengthening its military power to challenge the United States, the prominent global power.

Western interest in military alliances

India benefits from the Western interest in forming new military alliances, such as the recent AUCUS agreement between the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, aimed at building a new generation of nuclear submarines for the Australian Navy.

Additionally, the old quadruple alliance (comprising America, India, Japan, and Australia) is being revived to address the challenges China poses.

India benefits from the Western interest in forming new military alliances. The old quadruple alliance (comprising America, India, Japan, and Australia) is being revived to address the challenges China poses.

Delhi, undoubtedly, places significant importance on defending itself against the military threat from Beijing and seeks to establish deterrent tools, such as advanced weaponry and strategic alliances, especially after the border clashes that resulted in casualties on both sides.

These initiatives also involve reviving old regional relations, as seen in the four-way meeting with America, the UAE, and Israel, as well as active involvement in the BRICS alliance, which is scheduled to hold its summit in South Africa next month.

Furthermore, India is hosting the G20 summit in New Delhi next September, further enhancing its global role.

Despite India's efforts to strengthen its military capabilities and forge alliances, it remains cognizant of the economic interdependence between China and itself.

It recognises the risks of direct and comprehensive confrontation with its neighbour and the potential entanglement in conflicts between China and Western countries, particularly regarding Taiwan or the Ukrainian war.

India also acknowledges its historical military dependence on Russia and the potential hazards of siding with any party in the Ukrainian conflict.

Looking ahead, it is evident that Modi will keep his options open and skillfully balance relations between the three major powers – the US, China, and Russia – to enhance India's position during this transitional phase. This approach combines cooperation, partnership, and competition without being drawn into military conflicts.

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