Gaza’s wartime exercises for a war that won’t happen

Palestinian leaders have failed to bridge the divisions within their ranks, lack a cohesive national programme, and often make unsubstantiated claims to compensate for their lack of tangible political achievements.

Palestinian attacks will likely continue, as will the bloody Israeli responses, in a perpetual cycle. It leaves all parties trapped in a vicious circle with no end in sight.

It appears to be a dress rehearsal for an all-out war that will never happen. Why? Because all sides – including Palestinian backers, such as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard - are too invested in the status quo to risk all-out conflict.

Entrenched on all sides

The grievances are deep. The Israeli occupation tears apart the Palestinian social fabric, hindering its stability both politically and economically, which in turn makes it difficult to institute Palestinian responses and goals.

Individual attacks, whether with knives, firearms, or vehicles, will continue targeting Israeli settlers and soldiers, while violent clashes in Gaza and the increasing role of new armed groups in the West Bank will become a constant feature.

The intensity may rise or fall depending on the actions of the occupation - settler movements, statements by Israeli right-wing hawks, attempts to storm the Al-Aqsa Mosque, and the assassinations of activists all risk escalation.

But any ebbs or flows will only have a marginal effect on the overall direction of travel. The profound and often-silent struggle of the Palestinians over the past two decades has many angles, security and armed conflict being just one.

Palestinians' fading hopes

As things stand, it appears that the dream of a two-state solution - the focal point of the peace process in the 1990s – may be coming to an end.

Likewise, establishing a dual Palestinian-Jewish state seems increasingly impossible too, due to the fear of Jewish assimilation into an expanding Palestinian population.

Caught between the unfeasibility of the two-state solution and the bi-national-state solution (if we agree that Jews are a nationality, as some have argued), the hope of the Palestinian cause continues to wane.

The powerbroker bureaucrats in Ramallah and the armed rulers of Gaza seem content in their isolation, despite holding millions hostage. Israel has no qualms about killing some of them when it sees fit.

Palestinians need to develop a comprehensive programme that addresses their own leaders' neglect before protesting the world's indifference and the perceived "Arab betrayal" of an issue that is no longer a central concern.

Without such a programme, they will continue to be vulnerable to Israeli policies that solidify the establishment of numerous settlements, the separation wall, and the implementation of restrictions such as crossings and bypass roads designed to hinder Palestinian interaction.

This gradual but steady accumulation of circumstances is leading towards a shift in the balance of power. It is clear that this shift may not favour the Palestinians and may not culminate in a ceremony in the White House garden akin to the one marking the signing of the Oslo Accords nearly three decades ago.