The struggle for the new Syria

A political, diplomatic, and economic battle emerges after the spate of wars in Syria over the last decade

The struggle for the new Syria

The late British journalist and writer Patrick Seale encapsulated Syria's complex political history with three memorable phrases, including "The Struggle for Syria," "Asad: The Struggle for the Middle East," and "The Struggle for Peace in the Middle East."

Seale viewed Syrian history through the prism of two distinct phases: before and after Hafez al-Assad became president.

Prior to his tenure, Syria was a battleground for regional and international conflicts. However, under al-Assad's leadership, Syria transformed into a regional power with significant influence in neighbouring countries and the wider region.

Al-Assad pursued peace through direct and indirect negotiations with Israel — a "struggle" that would define Syria's foreign policy for years.

Intricate web of alliances

The attendance at al-Assad’s funeral 23 years ago reflected the intricate web of alliances and relationships he had established. The funeral drew representatives from America, Russia, and Europe, as well as from Iran, Turkey, and Arab nations.

The gathering brought together both allies and opponents of Arab regimes. While the event showcased Syria's external role, it also demonstrated the high stakes involved, with each team vying to win Syria over to their side and secure the allegiance of the new president, Bashar al-Assad.

Seale viewed Syrian history through the prism of two distinct phases: before and after Hafez al-Assad became president. Prior to his tenure, Syria was a battleground for regional and international conflicts.

Where does Syria stand after two decades of significant changes in the region and the world? The region and the world have markedly changed in the past two decades, but Syria changed even more.

In the past decade alone, Syria has undergone a considerable transformation. It is currently divided into three "statelets": one controlled by the Damascus government with support from Russia and Iran, a Kurdish-controlled area with American and Western support, and opposition enclaves supported by Türkiye.

Syria breaks into "statelets"

Syria and its "statelets" have become an arena for US-Russian competition or understanding, Iranian Israeli military conflict, and clear and vague US-Iranian strikes.

Syria and its "statelets" have become an arena for US-Russian competition or understanding, Iranian-Israeli military conflict, and clear and vague US-Iranian strikes.

Additionally, it has become a forum for Russian-Turkish dialogue, Russian-Turkish-Iranian understandings, and a mailbox for exchanging messages among belligerents in other conflict zones, ranging from Libya to Ukraine.

The current reality of the Syrian situation is best reflected in three high-profile political events and meetings that are currently taking place.

These include the meeting of the deputy foreign ministers of Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Russia in Moscow last week, the visit of Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi to Damascus on Wednesday, and the meeting of the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, and Syria in Amman on 1 May.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is exerting pressure on President al-Assad to meet with Erdogan before the Turkish elections mid-month. However, al-Assad has made the meeting conditional on one of three requirements: the withdrawal of Turkish troops from Syria, a promise of withdrawal, or a timetable for withdrawal.

In light of these preconditions, Moscow has opted to arrange security, military, and political meetings to develop a roadmap leading up to the al-Assad-Erdogan meeting.

However, the primary conflict at hand pertains to the future of Turkish influence in Syria and the role of Damascus in either facilitating or preventing an Arab incursion.

Syria's territories may become the "northern front" against Turkey, similar to how Iraq served as the "eastern front" against Iran.

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