After diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran, Riyadh sets its sights on Damascus

Further steps were taken later in April.

Foreign ministers from the Gulf Cooperation Council met in Jeddah alongside Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq for consultative discussions on establishing an Arab leadership role to bring Syria back into the international community and toward reclaiming its natural role in the region.

Faisal bin Farhan went to Damascus on 18 April to put the points drawn up to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad.

The high-level meeting showed that the Saudi initiative to strengthen its relations with Syria, which come despite opposition from the US, is more significant than efforts at other regional states to normalise ties with the brutal al-Assad regime, which has mistreated those opposed to it within the country.

Wide eyes in Washington 

Running at a fast pace, the diplomatic developments in the Middle East have caused international surprise.

The Wall Street Journalreported on 6 April that the director of the US's Central Intelligence Agency, William Burns, expressed shock over the rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran, as well as the al Assad regime, which is still under heavy sanctions from the West.

Burns warned Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman the moves are akin to sponsoring "global rivals."

Meanwhile, Moscow is backing a summit that will bring together the leaders of Syria, Turkey, and Iran to establish a four-way or 'quad' alliance following agreements made after the four countries' leaders met in Tehran last July.

Although Moscow aims to promote its initiative regionally and in the Arab world, it had separate meetings with the ambassadors Iran, Israel, Turkey, Egypt, and Algeria, who met with Mikhail Bogdanov, deputy foreign minister and presidential envoy to the Middle East and North Africa. They were entitled "Deep Exchange of Views for the Settlement of Crises in the Middle East and North Africa."

Russia seems to be struggling to establish the track on which relations between Syria and Turkey could be normalised — a critical point for this nascent alliance.

Moscow's moves collide with Damascus's mandatory conditions for discussing the change, which include Turkish withdrawal from Syria and Ankara's cessation of support for terrorist groups, including Syrian opposition factions in Idlib.

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No breakthrough in Moscow

The Syrian president reaffirmed these conditions during his recent visit to Moscow on 15 March, stating that he would not meet with the Turkish president until Turkish forces withdraw and Ankara ceases to support terrorist organisations.

In contrast, Turkey's foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, announced that Ankara would not accept any preconditions, including the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syrian territory, in exchange for direct negotiations with the Syrian government.

Cavusoglu emphasised that such a withdrawal would mean "a return of threats against Turkey." As a result, the scheduled Syrian-Turkish-Iranian-Russian quad meeting in Moscow in mid-April was postponed indefinitely, impeding progress in the Russian initiative.

Kurdish complications

There was a very different approach from the self-administered Kurdish-controlled region of northern and north-eastern Syria. It expressed its willingness to meet with the Syrian government to resolve the crisis, reflecting regional changes and the adding to the Arab outreach underway towards Damascus.

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The Kurdish statement, issued in mid-April, affirms its commitment to "the unity of Syrian territory" while emphasising the importance of "establishing a decentralised, pluralistic political administrative system that preserves the rights of everyone without exception." 

It also calls for a "fair distribution of economic wealth and resources among Syrian regions, including oil and gas fields, through agreeing with the Syrian government based on dialogue and negotiation."

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The Kurdish statement further complicates the picture for Russian attempts to reconcile the contradictions in the political positions of its potential allies. It contains points that create confusion for both Turkey and Syria, weakening Moscow's initiative.

Economic crisis

Damascus is currently struggling with a debilitating economic crisis and remains in a state of international and regional isolation. It recognises that the balance of power in the region has shifted, and its capabilities are no longer adequate to restore its central regional role.

Ankara seeks to gain territory in northern Syria while claiming to protect its security from Kurdish groups. However, it cannot cross American red lines, including the Caesar Act designed to protect Syrian civilians.

As a result, Damascus's cooperation with Moscow to normalise relations with Ankara will come without compensation and will not contribute to finding a solution to the ambitions of Kurdish groups, whose decisions also remain subject to Washington's will.

Conversely, its alliance with Iran will not serve as a fully protective shield for the Syrian regime, creating problems of its own.

The heavy presence of the Revolutionary Guard on Syrian territory has become a source of danger and a legitimate reason for Israel and the international coalition to launch missile attacks and air strikes on Syria.

Read more: Is Israel on 'red alert' yet?

International limits on al-Assad

Syria's options look limited — by Security Council resolutions and US restrictions. The regime's alliances with Moscow and Tehran continue to leave it isolated internationally.

It is powerless domestically against Kurdish militias allied with the US, who are determined to achieve a political solution establishing a share of national oil and gas resources, along the lines of the federal model in Iraq.

And so Syria faces choices — some of which come down to political realism.

Damascus must weigh up how two sets of international diplomatic efforts centred on the country may define its future: the Saudi initiative to return Syria to the Arab fold versus Russia's moves to set up the quad.