Is a new American civil war coming?

Some analysts dismiss the opinion polls and doubt that there will be a new civil war, but there is no clear escape from the risk of more political violence due to deep political divisions. 

Here are some of the biggest questions currently faced by the United States. The answers to them reveal the fault lines in society and the extent of the risk faced by the country. 

Can the American government stumble forward?

It's important to note that life continues daily in the US in what appears to be a normal manner, and perhaps the American government will stumble along for many years without a huge crisis or civil war. 

One factor that helps is that government in municipalities functions better than the central government in Washington. Local government manages schools, the police, the collection of trash, the maintenance of vital roads and airports. 

Author James Fallows used to write about American national security policy, but he has changed his focus to local government, and he is hopeful. He wrote in his 2017 book Our Towns: A Journey into the Heart of America that in small towns across the county, Republicans and Democrats still work together smoothly.

Events in America are overtaking Fallows' optimistic message, however. Since 2017 there are signs of the political polarisation now infecting municipalities. 

In conservative states like Tennessee, Texas and Florida the Republican Party wants political parties to enter elections to local school boards, which determine school policies, including education programmes. In the past, elections to school boards were non-political and the focus was on technical issues like budgets and school infrastructure requirements. 

In the last four years the Republican Party has begun to exploit worries about the teaching of American history and racial relations to make school board elections political and energise mothers and fathers to vote for Republicans. 

At the same time, instances of police abuse — especially of black citizens — and appropriate response, has made the issue of local police more controversial and political. 

Is a new constitution the answer?

I worked in countries like Algeria, Iraq and Syria that faced political crises and all of them turned to constitutional change to try to address the root causes of the polarisation. 

In America, too, there is now discussion about a national conference to change the constitution. Since the original convention in 1789 there has never been another constitutional convention. 

Article 5 of the constitution says that Congress must hold a convention if two-thirds of states demand it. That means 34 states must support the demand. So far, the legislatures in 19 states, all controlled by the Republican Party, have approved resolutions calling for such a convention, including four new states in 2022. 

The Republican agenda is clear: they want to reduce the authority of the central government and give state governments more authority, and they want to place legal limits on central government spending. 

Some on the Democratic Party side are beginning to support a new constitution convention also. 

Their agenda is for central government authority to limit gun ownership and increase government protection of civil rights, including for homosexuals and for women's right to access abortion. 

Issues like these already are causing political polarisation in America and it is not clear how a big new constitution conference of divided Americans would find answers. The convention could easily explode in bitter arguing between the delegates. 

As in Algeria, Syria and Iraq constitutional amendments will not solve the root problems. 

What would a civil war look like?

If there is no political solution in sight to the polarisation, what would a civil war in America look like? 

It would likely involve hundreds of white supremacists and conservative militias on one side. Analysts studying right-wing militias warn that some are openly preparing for armed struggle.

They already are openly training for combat missions and practice using automatic rifles and guns, and they do not hide that they expect to fight the government one day. 

On the other side would be government security forces, especially supported by cities with their diverse populations. There likely would be armed groups formed also to defend leftist protest movements — we saw an armed group mobilise to protect black protesters in Georgia in 2020. 

And it is important to remember that there are about 430 million firearms in an American population of 330 million people; gun ownership is especially widespread in rural parts of the country.

A new civil war would not resemble America's civil war in the 19th century with armies in uniform and front lines that moved north and south. White communities and minority communities are mixed in each state, and Republicans and Democrats are mixed too. 

Probably a civil war in America, if it breaks out, would resemble more the fighting in Algeria in the black decade there of the 1990s, where Islamist extremists and supporters of the government lived in the same cities. 
 

The fighting in mixed Iraqi provinces and cities like Baghdad might be another instructive example. 

In Algeria anti-government militias blocked roads, stopped cars and buses and arrested or killed potential opponents. They broke into houses, often at night, and intimidated or even killed the residents suspected of supporting the government.

At the same time, the local Algerian security forces were accused of helping the pro-government militias and committing terrible human rights violations. 

We can imagine that there could be connections in some places between rightist militias and local police and army units. There might be instances where soldiers quit their military units, as happened in Algeria and Syria. 

Some American military officers have warned about the penetration of the American army by extremist elements, and many members of right-wing militias have military experience. 

Nonetheless, the American military is hugely powerful, and this will affect how a civil war is fought. 

The American political analyst Barba Walter who wrote the book in early 2022 How Civil Wars Start predicted that an American civil war would resemble the violence between Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland in the 1970s and 1980s. 

The Irish Republican Army didn't try to seize cities in Northern Ireland, but it did use bombs and assassinations against the British Army and its supporters.

In Algeria the Islamist militias did not try to capture cities and hold them against the powerful Algerian army. Instead, they attacked the Algerian army with ambushes, roadside bombs and assassinations. They often operated a night. 

We have already seen this kind of attack in America. 

The 1995 car bomb attack against the government building in Oklahoma City by a right-wing extremist that killed 160 people and the 11 August attack on the FBI office are examples. 

A September 2022 study by George Washington University in Washington about political violence in America observed that since 2019, white supremacist groups have conducted more attacks against infrastructure targets. 

In particular, the report mentioned there have been more plots to attack the electricity network. Insurgent attacks against infrastructure were common in the civil wars in Algeria and Iraq too.

Are the worries too pessimistic?

American author Thomas Ricks wrote two excellent books about the war in Iraq and he has written popular books about American political history. 

In an editorial in The Washington Post on 5 September he predicted that in the end there will not be a civil war in America. First, he said that the American court system has been strong and has punished the responsible people who attacked the Capitol building on January 6, 2021. 

He added that despite threats against employees, the FBI has continued to investigate and bring to trial extremists who threaten and undertake acts of violence, such as those who plotted to kidnap the Governor of the state of Michigan. 

Ricks also observed that the anti-government extremists themselves do not want to be martyrs. Some of them have repented during their trials to avoid long prison sentences. Others have cooperated with government investigators in order to save themselves from prison. 

None have denounced the government or claimed government oppression in their court. Most importantly, Ricks noted that none of the accused wants to be a martyr. 

Ricks concludes that without a stronger, more dedicated violent opposition, the police and FBI will be able to penetrate and contain violent extremist groups. In other words, so far, we didn't see an Ali Benhadj in America willing to go to jail denouncing the government as in Algeria, and there is no Abu Musab Zarqawi willing to die as a martyr.
 

A September 2021 research study by a group of American political scientists who specialise in public opinion concluded that the number of Americans who support violence for political purposes in actually very small. 

They asserted that earlier opinion polls were exaggerated when they showed 40% of Americans would accept political violence in some situations. They said such polls asked vague questions and did not define violence precisely in their questions, making it easier for those answering to support some kind of vague violence. 

When the political scientists conducted their own survey, they discovered that a large majority of Americans support harsh punishment for political crimes like an assassination regardless of political party. 

Their final conclusion is that only a small number of Americans support political violence, but this same group supports violence in general.

Return of election violence possible

A small number of people who want violence and have large numbers of weapons can cause big problems.

Already we have seen a man attack the Republican candidate for governor in New York during a speech last July, and The New York Times reported that the number of threats against members of Congress increased five-fold since 2016 to exceed 10,000 last year and more and more members are hiring bodyguards. 

Meanwhile, employees working in the 2020 election sites received thousands of threats. A survey in early 2021 showed that one of every six election workers reported receiving a threat from extremists who claimed massive election fraud. 

There will not be another attack on the Capitol building, but it is not impossible to imagine attacks against police officers and officials at election sites as we saw in Brazil's recent election. 

A CBS News poll in late August showed 64 per cent of Americans expect more political violence in the coming years.

Even if America avoids a civil war, there is no agreement among American political leaders about how to narrow political divisions and reduce the risk of political violence. 

-Robert Ford is a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute, former American Ambassador to Syria, Algeria and Iraq