Fragility of peace evident ahead of Biden’s Northern Ireland visit

The signing of the GFA in April 1998 by then British Prime Minister Tony Blair and his Irish counterpart, Bertie Ahern, brought an end to an era known as the Troubles in Northern Ireland which claimed the lives of an estimated 3,568 victims on both sides of the sectarian divide.

Profound effect

There can be little doubt that the agreement has had a profound effect on the development of the province in the intervening 25 years, with the cessation of hostilities allowing a new generation to grow up in a more peaceful, increasingly prosperous society, which is also taking important steps towards bringing about a wider reconciliation between the communities.

As Chris Heaton-Harris, the UK's Northern Ireland Secretary pointed out on the eve of Biden's visit, thanks to the agreement, Northern Ireland has broken down many of the barriers that kept communities divided.

Basic arrangements that were unthinkable at the height of the Troubles, such as children enjoying the benefits of an integrated education, are today commonplace, and efforts to end the long-standing divisions between the Protestant and Catholic communities have even resulted in the establishment of daily bus routes connecting east and west Belfast.

The changes afforded by the agreement have also had a profound impact on the local economy, which has seen its fortunes transformed by more than two decades of peace.

Apart from enjoying a vibrant tourism sector, Northern Ireland is today home to a vibrant film and TV industry which has produced highly successful productions such as the recently-released Dungeons & Dragons, Honor Among Thieves and Game of Thrones.

Northern Ireland also boasts impressive engineering firms and a cyber sector which has attracted significant international investment.

As Heaton-Harris pointed out, "The Northern Ireland of today is a hub of ingenuity and innovation that would have been beyond imagination in the decades before 1998."

Mounting concerns

Yet, amid the celebrations to mark the signing of the agreement, there are mounting concerns that some of the sectarian tensions that resulted in the outbreak of the Troubles in the late 1960s are once again rising to the surface, a development Biden and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will be keen to address during their talks local political leaders during the summit.

During his four-day visit, Biden will only spend one day in Northern Ireland, opting to spend the rest of his time in Ireland, where he will pay homage to his ancestral roots in counties Louth and Mayo.

One of the reasons Biden's presence in Northern Ireland has been truncated is because the Stormont Assembly, the body established by the GFA to establish a joint power-sharing arrangement for Catholics and Protestants, has been suspended ever since the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the main political body representing the Protestant community, withdraw its support.

The DUP's refusal to participate in the assembly stems from its unhappiness over the Northern Ireland Protocol, an agreement between the European Union and the UK on post-Brexit trading arrangements for the province.

Unlike the rest of the UK, which can conduct its trading arrangements independently of EU regulations, Northern Ireland still remains subject to EU law because of its border with Ireland. This arrangement continues to exist despite Sunak's recent efforts to improve the deal, known as the Windsor Framework, which sought to ease the EU's restrictions on trade in the province.

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The DUP's refusal to participate in Stormont, which has continued since Sunak agreed the Framework with the EU, has led to increased political tensions, especially among dissident republicans who have never accepted the terms of the GFA, and remain committed to the creation of a united Ireland, even if it means resorting to violence.

While the main focus of Biden's visit will undoubtedly be to highlight the enormous progress that has been made to bring peace to Northern Ireland during the past 25 years, it will also serve as a stark reminder of the fragility of peace in the province, peace that cannot be taken for granted so long as tensions remain across the sectarian divide.