Syria: A microcosm of global polarisation

Western countries have resigned themselves to the reality of a Syria divided into three zones of influences, where four foreign governments exercise influence, several armies operate, and hundreds of militias and thousands of fighters roam.

Natural and man-made shifts

In the past year there has been two shifts: A natural one — being the earthquake in Syria and Turkey last month; and a man-made one — the Russian war in Ukraine. The quake was also political, as it hastened the normalisation process between Damascus and Arab countries, with the foreign ministers of the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Egypt making unprecedented visits to Damascus. 

As for the war in Ukraine, it has shifted priorities and widened the gap between Western and Arab countries. While Europe and the US supported Kyiv against Moscow, some Arab countries have opted for neutrality in the conflict.

However, last week marked a turning point. Al-Assad received a red-carpet welcome during an official visit to Oman. He then made an "official visit" to Moscow, where he laid a wreath during an official ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier commemorating Russian soldiers who died in World War II.

Al-Assad, however, was not persuaded to take the Kremlin's advice to meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to help him win the upcoming elections in May.

The UAE went a few symbolic steps further than Oman and Moscow, with an official reception ceremony, playing the Syrian national anthem, and other ceremonial protocols, in addition to welcoming his wife, Asma al-Assad, with an exceptional and unprecedented ceremony. 

'Three No's'

Meanwhile, the Western Quad — the US, France, Germany and Britain — issued a strongly worded joint statement, sticking to their 'Three No's.'

1)    No to normalising relations with the al-Assad regime
2)    No to funding reconstruction of damage inflicted by the regime during the conflict
3)    No to lifting sanctions

"For the benefit of the Syrian people, we will not normalise until there is authentic and enduring progress toward a political solution," the statement read.

The coming days and weeks will witness various diplomatic campaigns, with each side mobilising support for its position. The Jordanian capital, Amman, will host a meeting of representatives of Western, Arab, and regional countries on Syria, and a US official will tour the Middle East. 

How can the two opposing positions be reconciled? How can we unite those who have "normalised," those who wish to "normalise," and those who oppose normalisation for political or legal reasons such as the US Caesar Act?

Absent from the above-mentioned diplomatic campaigns, however, are the demands of the Syrians who took to the streets in 2011 chanting for freedom and regime change.

The shifting priorities can be attributed to the specific geopolitical considerations of the region and the world at this moment in time. Iran is engaged with Russia in the Ukraine war where the West is helping Ukraine against Russia. 

Syria has become a mere extension of this major conflict that will shape the new world. The Ukraine war could motivate a rising China to make a similar move on Taiwan or other global actors to do the same.

Those who choose normalisation see Syria from the Russian angle; those who reject normalisation see it through American eyes; while those who do not normalise but do not object to normalisation either leave their options open until the signs of the New World Order and its regional implications become clear. 

Read more: Ghassan Salamé: The birth pangs of a new world order

There is no doubt that Syria is one of its arenas — especially with the armies of the US, Britain, France, Russia, Turkey, Iran, and Israel all being present in this "playfield".

There is also no doubt that Syria is in the eye of a new storm brewing in the Arab region, which includes the agreement to resume diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the exchange of visits between Egypt and Turkey.