Fingers on the trigger in global nuclear standoff

Caps on the number of nuclear warheads have stood in the way of an arms race, but now neither the US nor Russia will feel bound by them, thus paving the way for a new arms race, the first for a generation.

The issue of nuclear proliferation is not limited to Russia and the United States. North Korea tested three missiles at the beginning of this year. Its president Kim Jong-un has said the country will soon increase its nuclear arsenal and add intercontinental ballistic missiles, which would deliver them.

Popping the cap

For 32 years, the number of nuclear warheads has either stayed the same or, in some cases, been lowered. It has certainly not risen. That is now set to change.

There are approximately 12,700 nuclear weapons in the world today. Roughly 6,000 are in Russian hands while 5,500 are under American stewardship.

China has long refused to sign any arms reduction agreement, including START II, and is expected to have more than 1,000 by 2030, according to a Stockholm International Peace Institute (SIPRI) report.

The Asian superpower says its nuclear policy is not to conduct an arms race but to ensure self-defence. In other words, the fingers of all three of the world's biggest militaries (US, Russia, China) all seem to be gearing back towards nuclear.

Don't forget conventional

It is not just in the field of nuclear weapons that states have been increasing their stockpiles, but an accurate estimate of the increased spending will not be available until the publication of a joint 'Military Balance' report by the Royal Institute for Strategic Studies in London and the Swedish Institute for Peace Research.

That arms spending has increased is not in doubt, however, with the Ukraine war having surprised almost everyone and jolted many countries, especially in Europe, towards strengthening their defensive capabilities.

Russia, meanwhile, has put its weapons production facilities into overdrive, having depleted much of its arsenal and moved towards an increasing reliance on states such as Iran to provide it with drones.

Decisions by Japan and Germany to send weaponry to Ukraine have broken with decades of post-war policy and triggered an unprecedented demand for arms in the defence industry.

Their return to the arms race is the biggest development in the conventional arms market for many years. Since the war, Germany has halved its defence spending.

Now, with a constitutional amendment triggered by Russia's invasion, it now has a EUR 100 billion fund to increase its military budget. It could soon be Europe's biggest defence power once again.

Asia arming in parallel

Japan has done something similar. Last August, it reinterpreted its constitution, which formerly required military spending to be defensive in nature, not offensive, and like Germany, it has significantly increased its arms budget, up by $300 billion.

Never likely to be left behind, China has also increased its military budget by 7.1 percent to support its huge military force, both in terms of its personnel, as well as its air and naval capabilities.

In summary, in both the conventional and nuclear fields, the momentum is one of acceleration and upscaling, not of deceleration or downscaling. Militaries covering much of the world are dusting off their stockpiles and ordering shiny new ones.

In many ways, that makes this the most dangerous period since the Cold War, the Cuban Missile Crisis, or the end of the Second World War, depending on your angle.