The Iranian National Security Council announced in the middle of last week that it would send a three-pronged response to the European Union, a day after Tehran announced that there had been a "relative development" in the nuclear negotiations that have been ongoing for months in the Austrian capital of Vienna with the participation of Iran, China, Russia, France, Britain and Germany, in addition to the indirect participation of the United States.
Brussels is scheduled to begin studying the Iranian response to a proposal that may pave the way for a return to the 2015 nuclear agreement which was designed to impose restrictions on Tehran's nuclear program, after it confirmed that the Iranian response had been received by Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.
"The United States and Iran alike refrained from commenting on the text of the agreement proposed by the Europeans, but it seems that Tehran is not in a hurry even though it sent to Brussels in response to the agreement proposed by it," said Nabil Alatoom, an academic who specializes in Iranian affairs.
Alatoom, who runs the Center for Iranian Studies, added, "Tehran has reservations about the text of the agreement, and for this we will witness more rounds of talks and negotiations in the coming period."
Mohammad Marandi, adviser to the Iranian negotiating delegation, revealed this month that his country has a "big chance" to return to the 2015 nuclear agreement, adding in newspaper statements that "the outstanding issues have been resolved, and there is a great possibility of returning to the nuclear agreement," to which Tehran requires a return for the purpose of lifting Western sanctions on it.
The 2015 nuclear agreement was concluded between Iran and six major international powers and contributed to the lifting of sanctions against it in exchange for Tehran reducing its nuclear activities and ensuring the peacefulness of its nuclear program.
However, Washington unilaterally withdrew from it during the era of former President Donald Trump in 2018, when it re-imposed severe sanctions on Iran which, in turn, reneged on most of its commitments under that agreement.
Alatoom stressed that "Iran is taking advantage of changing international conditions at the present time, as it is trying to enter into an alliance with Russia and China, especially with the possibility of the Taiwan issue exploding in its favor."
Here is the full text of the interview that Majalla conducted by phone with Alatoom.
• Is a return to the nuclear agreement imminent?
The continued suffering of the European Union from the energy crisis following the Russian-Ukrainian war makes the EU more determined than ever to sign the nuclear agreement to gain benefits from Iran.
This comes especially since the latter can bargain more while receiving more shares from the European energy market in order to obtain more concessions. Therefore, the time factor is in favor of Tehran, without the rest of the parties participating in its negotiations with Washington, in addition to the current international circumstances and changes, all of which may accelerate the arrival or return of the nuclear agreement.
• What are the international conditions from which Tehran is currently benefiting during its negotiations?
For example, there is a possibility that the Taiwan matter will explode. This is in favor of Iran, as it is trying to form an alliance with Moscow and Beijing, after it chose to link its interests with these two capitals.
Tehran is also looking for an agreement that takes Russian and Chinese interests into account. Therefore, opening diplomatic channels with regional countries are all variables that are in its interest and make it avoid rushing into an emergency nuclear agreement.
• What will this expected agreement look like?
As for the expected agreement, it will take more into account Iran's interests and achieve more gains, especially since Tehran has so far succeeded in neutralizing three main problems in the negotiations, namely the Iranian missile, space and drone programs.
This comes in addition to Iran's destabilizing role for security and stability through regional crises and turning a blind eye to the presence of uranium traces in three facilities that Iran has not disclosed.
• How will this agreement reflect on the Syrian and Lebanese crises, especially with Tehran's interference in the affairs of both countries?
With regard to the impact of the agreement on Syria and Lebanon, it is likely that Iran will continue to guarantee its influence there. Perhaps lifting the sanctions imposed on Iran may allow it to increase the pace of its activities and further support its arms and proxies, which will exacerbate regional tension and would further exacerbate the Israeli clash with Iran.
