Negotiations With the Russian Bear

Elie Fawaz
Elie Fawaz

Negotiations With the Russian Bear

But is it time for the Ukrainian war to stop? All of the tools of deterrence have been used and countries have been exhausted from the economic sanctions to the massive armament of the Ukrainian army, in addition to the provision of all kinds of ammunition and even intelligence information to the media campaign on all traditional and social means.

However, the Russian army is still advancing and nibbling the Ukrainian cities one after the other. Russia is moving slowly perhaps, but it is advancing amid European astonishment, which accuses President Putin of intending to starve the world by occupying the main ports for the export of grain.

It is really a dilemma that the world and the Europeans, in particular, do not know how to deal with. Sanctions on Russian gas or oil and the Europeans’ refraining from buying them will open other consumer markets such as China.

In this regard, Russian oil exports to China recorded an increase of 55% compared to last year, while Europeans are still suffering in the matter of searching for alternatives to it.

In Germany, for example, the government will resort to using coal, especially in the electricity sector, in order to reduce dependence on Russian gas. As for the major companies that were forced to close their businesses in Moscow, they are talking about billions of dollars in losses as a result of this decision.

Without a doubt, Western sanctions on Moscow will have a fundamental and significant impact on the Russian interior, but its repercussions will not pose any danger to this regime or its plans, as it will suppress by force and violence any protest movement that will support the West, which will suffer for a relatively long period of time from the results of that war.

If the absolute support that Ukrainian President Zelensky receives does not stop the progress of the Russian forces and does not hinder their plans and their intention to take full control of the southern part of Ukraine and completely prevent it from penetrating the sea, the fear is for Odessa and then Moldova to share a fate similar to any cities occupied by the Russian army.

It is clear that this war has great and tragic repercussions, the first of which is the people who sacrifice their lives. The second is the cities that are subjected to systematic destruction, but this war also has repercussions on global food security since a large proportion of the grain passes through the ports in the warzone.

To this, Russia added the increase in inflation rates that hit the world and Europe, especially in what affects the purchasing power of its citizens, who began to feel the loss of some foodstuffs from store shelves, as well as the increase in their prices due to the increase in fuel prices. All this happens after the world learned about the crisis that coronavirus left on its economies.

All analysts say that the war will be prolonged and that the Russian bear will drown in the Ukrainian crisis, as it sank before in the Afghan quagmire.

But is this comparison or approximation permissible? It is true that most of the Ukrainians are aligned behind their leadership, but there are also regions and peoples in this country that support Russia, so the Russian soldier does not feel that he is in danger or in a hostile environment, for example in the Donbass. Then the most important and imminent question: Can the world bear the consequences of this war, even if Europe finds alternatives to gas and oil?

font change