So far, the White House has been reluctant to accept the Iranian regime's demand that the mullahs' IRGC be removed from the State Department's list of foreign terrorist organizations, as a condition for re-implementation of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
Negotiations to restore mutual compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action began more than a year ago in Vienna, but faced many barriers, the latest of which was Iran's refusal to back down from its last demand regarding the mullahs' guards.
In the face of this Iranian intransigence, many US lawmakers and political commentators have been worried that US President Joe Biden's administration will blink first and agree to additional concessions, rather than allow the JCPOA to collapse once and for all.
The administration initially announced that it was seeking a "longer and stronger" nuclear deal at the Vienna talks, but that goal appears to have slipped, with Tehran explicitly refusing to negotiate anything other than a return to sanctions relief in line with the original terms of the 2015 agreement.
Several Republican members of Congress, as well as some US allies in the Middle East, have recently criticized the White House for moving, instead, in the direction of a "shorter and weaker" agreement.
Although Republicans almost unanimously agree in their opposition to the emerging agreement, the JPCOA has not been popular, especially among Democrats either.
Four Democratic senators voted against when the original agreement was concluded, and eventually the JCPOA moved forward on the procedural rules, despite the opposition of a majority of lawmakers.
These doubts, along with outspoken opposition to the new Iran deal, seem to have grown by a large margin since it became clear that an agreement in Vienna would not be possible as long as the mullahs' guards remained on the US terror list.
While in February 33 Republican lawmakers signed a letter reminding President Biden of his responsibility to send a new agreement for review in Congress, another letter was signed on March 14 by all but one of the 50 Republican senators and showed much stronger language.
He declared that "if the administration agrees to a deal" that does not unequivocally halt Iran's progress toward a nuclear weapon while also addressing the regime's regional intervention, ballistic missile development, etc., "Republicans will do everything in their power to undo it."
Even that message seemed a foregone conclusion as the Republicans involved would act against all or most of their fellow Democrats.
But that assumption was undermined in advance, on March 10, when 11 House Democrats joined 10 Republicans to express their concerns about the course of the nuclear negotiations and present 16 questions to the Biden administration about a potential agreement, including whether the mullahs would stay on the State Department's Terror List.
The conference coincided with a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing that provided additional context for bipartisan opposition to the removal of the IRGC from the list of terrorist organizations. In it, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley emphasized the terrorist goals and practices of the IRGC, especially the Foreign Special Operations Division, the Quds Force.
This entity is known for its role in a range of conflicts in the region, including the civil wars in Syria and Yemen, as well as for its support and encouragement of terrorist groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the so-called Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq.
At an earlier hearing on March 15, General Frank McKenzie, the commander of US Central Command, declared the mullahs' guards "the greatest daily threat to regional security and stability."
The next day, Ohio Representative Mike Turner, the ranking Republican on the House Intelligence Committee, reiterated that description and said: "The news that the Biden administration is considering removing the mullahs’ corps from the list of foreign terrorist organizations is troubling. We must remain vigilant in protecting our nation and our allies, such as Israel, from the growing and potential threats. This certainly will not be achieved by stripping the mullahs’ guards of this designation and could affect our government’s ability to stop bad actors.”
So far, 20 Democratic lawmakers have expressed a willingness to work with Republicans to that end. It stands to reason that others might be similarly willing, even if they do not state this fact publicly.
It is also possible that some have privately expressed their concerns to colleagues on both sides. Indeed, this was implied in comments by Michael McCaul, the ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, when he and 14 other Republicans held a separate press conference with other Democrats.
"If I'm Counting"
“I see a lot of Democrats with us,” McCall said, noting that only 218 of the 435 members of the House of Representatives should support a vote on a resolution opposing any deal the White House might strike with Iran.
But with the Vienna talks still stalled indefinitely, it appears increasingly uncertain whether any agreement will be reached in the first place.
McCaul described the upcoming dismantling of the IRGC as a "poison pill" that could wipe out already temporary Democratic support for the deal.
The White House is undoubtedly aware of this assessment and may have reached the same conclusion in the wake of recent alarming statements.
The administration has not provided any new public indications of its willingness to consider delisting, and has even imposed new sanctions on entities with ties to the IRGC's ballistic missile program.
On March 22, Rep. Scott Franklin (R-FL) and 86 other House Republicans wrote a letter to Secretary Blinken, opposing the IRGC's FTO designation.
It is feared that the lifting is part of a deal that concludes the Vienna negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program.
On April 6, 2022, Democratic Congressman Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey issued a joint statement declaring that "18 Democratic members of Congress have joined together to raise critical concerns about the looming Iran deal.
Reports indicate that the United States has reached the final stage of the Vienna negotiations with Iran - the world's state sponsor of terrorism.
If anything can be said about the new conditions that the Iranian regime put on the negotiating table in Vienna, Tehran is morally and politically testing the situation in Washington.
Endanger the entire fate of the JCPOA by asking the Biden administration to withdraw its judgment on whether killing Americans and US allies in the Middle East is terrorism or not, or Tehran will respond with nuclear terrorism, with the result sending a message to the regime and other tyrannical aggressors in the world.
Therefore, caving in to hopes that this regime will eventually stick to its pledges is dangerously naive and underestimated, and fortunately, this understanding is growing increasingly bipartisan.
