After 40 days of Russia’s war in Ukraine the conflict seems to show no end in sight and has entered a new phase. After suffering significant defeats and failing to take Kyiv, Odessa, and Kharkiv within the first 48 hours of invasion as originally planned, Moscow seems to have established a set of secondary goals in Ukraine.
By early April, Moscow realized it had bit off more than it could chew. It had overestimated its own military might and underestimated Ukraine’s willingness and ability to defend itself. The international community, Europe and the United States in particular, have rallied behind Ukraine supporting it militarily and financially while imposing severe sanctions on Russia.
At home, President Putin’s propaganda machine continues to sell the war as a “special military operation” to “denazify and demilitarize” Ukraine and help the breakaway de facto republics of Donetsk and Luhansk “defend” themselves from the Nazis in Kyiv. The mounting photo and video evidence of Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine is placated as fake news and even acts of violence committed by the Ukrainian government against its own people for show. The propaganda machine has worked so well, that according to a recent survey 81% of Russians support the war in Ukraine.
Unable to defeat the Zelenskiy Government and take Kyiv, having faced serious setbacks due to serious logistical issues, Russia has pulled its forces back from northwestern parts of Ukraine, and currently the Kyiv district is free of Russian forces. The Ukrainian forces have also taken back Chernobyl, as well as Chernihiv and Sumi districts. As of this writing, Russia has reportedly given up 40% of the territories it took on February 24th. But as the Russian pullback began, the world witnessed horrific images of tortured and murdered civilians in the town of Bucha, Borodyanka, Irpin, and elsewhere.
- A body with hands bound by white cloth, who according to residents was shot by Russian soldiers, lies in the street, amid Russia's invasion on Ukraine, in Bucha, Ukraine April 3, 2022. REUTERS/Zohra Bensemra
In his address to the UN Security Council on April 5th, President Zelenskiy recounted what he saw in Bucha and pleaded that the Council take steps to punish Russia:
“The Russian military searched for and purposefully killed anyone who served our state. They executed women outside the houses when approaching and simply calling someone alive. They killed whole families - adults and children. And they tried to burn their bodies. I am addressing you on behalf of the people who honor the memory of the deceased every day. Every day, in the morning. The memory of the killed civilians who were shot in the back of the head or in the eye after being tortured; who were shot just on the streets; who were thrown into the well, so that they die there in suffering; who were killed in apartments, houses, blown up by grenades; who were crushed by tanks in civilian cars in the middle of the road, for fun; whose limbs were cut off, whose throat was cut; who were raped and killed in front of their own children. Their tongues were torn out only because they did not hear from them what they wanted to hear.
How is this different from what the ISIS terrorists were doing in the occupied territory? Except that it is done by a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.”
In light of the mounting evidence of Russia’s continued war crimes in Ukraine, Russia was hit with a new round of U.S. sanctions.
The latest set of sanctions targets Russia’s Sberbank which holds one-third of Russia's total banking assets, and Alfabank, the country's fourth largest financial institution. Families of President Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov have also been sanctioned. Meanwhile, the West continues to support Ukraine’s efforts to defend itself. A major challenge in aiding Ukraine militarily has been the lack of training for Ukrainian troops to operate some of the more complex defense systems and military aircraft. Now that it seems this war is dragging on indefinitely, Pentagon says it is supplying the Ukrainian armed forces with 100 Switchblade drones as part of a $800 million military aid package. This aid package will also include training for a small group of Ukrainian soldiers to operate the drones.
Measured against its initial war objectives, Moscow is losing this war. However, domestically pressure is mounting on the Putin regime to prove itself victorious in this “noble” mission in Ukraine. Moscow’s secondary goals in Ukraine have also become clear. Russia will likely regroup and intensify fighting in Ukraine’s eastern and south-eastern regions including Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhia regions. Mariupol, one of the biggest port cities in the south-east, has essentially fallen after intense Syria-style aerial bombardments levelled the city. These regions border Russia and Moscow will likely have an easier time holding an intense line of fire after it regroups and resupplies its forces.
On March 29, Istanbul hosted peace negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv. The parties said there was reason for cautious optimism. Ukraine was offering major concessions to Russia, including a promise not to join NATO if Ukraine’s international allies offered it a collective defense charter resembling NATO’s Article 5.
Ukraine even offered a 15-year timeline for negotiations over Crimea. The de-escalation talks did not lead to a ceasefire, and shortly after the meeting ended Russia’s military pullback revealed the atrocious scenes from Bucha. Now, the de-escalation talks are replaced by discussions about the international community’s need to hold Russia accountable for these war crimes. Will Ukraine continue to offer Moscow the same settlement terms it presented in Istanbul now that the severity of the Russian atrocities has reached new levels? This is to be seen and depends on the West’s continued support of Ukraine.
*Maia Otarashvili is a Research Fellow and Deputy Director of the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Her research is focused on geopolitics and security of the Black Sea-Caucasus region, Russian foreign policy, and the post-Soviet protracted conflicts.
