The parliamentary proposal submitted to the parliament by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey together with its ally the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) in order to change articles in the electoral and party laws is causing considerable controversy on the Turkish political scene. What is the ruling coalition seeking to legally achieve after the formal submission of the proposal to the parliament weeks ago?
The proposed amendments introduced by the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan-led ruling party comprise 15 items that have the full support of his ally Devlet Bahceli, who leads the right-wing MHP. The most prominent amendment is that related to the parliamentary threshold, which is the percentage of votes obtained by the party participating in the parliamentary elections that later authorizes it to form a parliamentary bloc within parliament.
The ruling coalition proposes reducing this percentage to 7% instead of 10% according to the current electoral law. The suggested percentage prevents any party that did not obtain this percentage vote from forming a parliamentary bloc. Turkish sources indicate that the AKP specifically aims through this amendment to ensure the existence of a parliamentary bloc for its ally, the MHP, after opinion polls showed a decline in its popularity and the impossibility of obtaining more than 10%.
There is another article among the proposed amendments that has become the subject of controversy between the ruling coalition and the opposition. The said article recognizes the prohibition of parliamentarians from moving from one party to another to form a parliamentary bloc in the presidential and parliamentary elections, even if it was recently established and its conference has not convened more than twice. However, thanks to the proposed amendments on which parliament will vote in the coming period, this issue will no longer be possible.
The head of a renowned Turkish center for research and opinion polls stressed that "the approval of these amendments in the Turkish parliament may take about one month." He hinted that the amendment "may not contribute to preventing new parties" from running in the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for mid-next year. This is especially the case knowing that the two parties formed by former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and his deputy Ali Babacan after their resignations from the ruling party meet the conditions for the participation in these elections.
Kemal Ozkiraz, who runs the Eurasia Public Opinion Research Center (AKAM), explains: "The main and primary objective of these amendments is to dismantle the current electoral coalition that competes with the ruling coalition, and perhaps also prevent the pro-Kurdish People's Party from participating in the upcoming elections – if it was not already banned by then."
The current coalition, which competes with Erdogan's party, includes the main opposition party, the Republican People's Party, the Islamist Felicity Party, and the nationalist IYI (Good) Party.
Here is the full text of the interview that Majalla conducted over the phone with Ozkiraz:
Q- What are the most prominent changes that the parties and electoral laws will undergo, in addition to amending the electoral threshold and preventing the transfer of parliamentarians from one party to another?
A-The method of distributing parliamentary seats will change. At present, this is done according to the total votes of the electoral coalition. The new amendments, however, suggest distributing parliamentary seats for each party alone. Now this is an interesting and controversial proposal.
Q- What is the purpose of this proposed article? Does it not affect the ruling coalition, which includes two parties?
A-The primary goal is to dismantle the current electoral coalition rivaling the ruling coalition. These amendments will disperse the parties that compete with the AKP. At the same time, however, the MHP candidates can be nominated in the electoral rolls of the AKP, that is, to participate in the elections as a single party instead of an electoral coalition.
Q- Can these amendments prevent the new parties formed by defectors from Erdogan's party from participating in the upcoming elections?
A-In fact, these amendments bring considerable advantages to large parties, and thus may hinder the participation of small parties. However, the parties that meet the required conditions can take part easily, as is the case with the parties of Davutoglu and Babacan. Both parties held their conferences and established offices in most regions of the country. Therefore, the law does not hinder their participation in the elections, but it may hinder the participation of the pro-Kurdish party – if it was not already banned by then.
Q-How can the Peoples' Democratic Party be prevented from participating in the upcoming elections?
A-If the Peoples' Democratic Party is dissolved, its current deputies will form a new group. The current law authorizes the party to participate in elections in this way, but the proposed law does not.
For a new party to take part in the elections, it must establish representative offices in half of the provinces, hold its local conferences there, and hold its main conference at least six months before the elections. Therefore, if the Peoples' Democratic Party is dissolved in the coming period, there will be obstacles to its participation in the upcoming elections.
