For the first time in a generation, there is a war waging in Europe. In the early morning hours of Thursday, February 24th, Russian president Vladimir Putin announced a “special military operation” in Ukraine. Russia launched missile strikes all over Ukraine, including Kyiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Luhansk, Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr. In Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Dnipro the missile strikes targeted military control centers, airfields, and military depots. However, in Kharkiv, Chuguiv, and other towns, residential areas were also hit, and a civilian death toll has been reported. Latest reports show that Russian tanks are also rolling into undisputed Ukrainian territories, and the story of this full-scale Russian invasion is still unfolding.
The missile strikes came immediately after Moscow published Putin’s address, declaring the war: “I made a decision to carry out a special military operation. The purpose of this operation is to protect people who, for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime. To this end, we will seek to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, as well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation.”
The video was yet another one of Putin’s typical diatribes about the history of Russian and Ukrainian peoples, and a long recounting of his own version of the West’s crimes against Russia.
“Even now, with NATO’s eastward expansion the situation for Russia has been becoming worse and more dangerous by the year. Moreover, these past days NATO leadership has been blunt in its statements that they need to accelerate and step up efforts to bring the alliance’s infrastructure closer to Russia’s borders. In other words, they have been toughening their position. We cannot stay idle and passively observe these developments. This would be an absolutely irresponsible thing to do for us.”
The Russian president closed his remarks by addressing the Ukrainian people:
“I would like to address the citizens of Ukraine. In 2014, Russia was obliged to protect the people of Crimea and Sevastopol from those who you yourself call “nats.” The people of Crimea and Sevastopol made their choice in favor of being with their historical homeland, Russia, and we supported their choice. As I said, we could not act otherwise. The current events have nothing to do with a desire to infringe on the interests of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. They are connected with defending Russia from those who have taken Ukraine hostage and are trying to use it against our country and our people. I reiterate: we are acting to defend ourselves from the threats created for us and from a worse peril than what is happening now. I am asking you, however hard this may be, to understand this and to work together with us so as to turn this tragic page as soon as possible and to move forward together, without allowing anyone to interfere in our affairs and our relations but developing them independently, so as to create favorable conditions for overcoming all these problems and to strengthen us from within as a single whole, despite the existence of state borders. I believe in this, in our common future.”
Earlier in the night, as the tensions kept on building, the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the people of Russia in a televised speech: “Today I initiated a phone call with the president of the Russian Federation. The result was silence. Though the silence should be in Donbas. That’s why I want to address today the people of Russia. I am addressing you not as a president, I am addressing you as a citizen of Ukraine.”
The speech was recorded in Russian. Zelenskyy reiterated that Ukraine has never posed a threat to Russia. “Our main goal is peace in Ukraine and the safety of our people, Ukrainians. For that we are ready to have talks with anybody, including you, in any format, on any platform. The war will deprive (security) guarantees from everybody – nobody will have guarantees of security anymore. Who will suffer the most from it? The people. Who doesn’t want it the most? The people! Who can stop it? The people. But are there those people among you? I am sure. You are told we are Nazis, but can a people support Nazis that gave more than eight million lives for the victory over Nazism? How can I be a Nazi? Tell my grandpa, who went through the whole war in the infantry of the Soviet Army and died as a colonel in independent Ukraine.”
Later in the night Zelenskyy addressed the people of Ukraine.
The shelling began in the late hours of the night Washington time. U.S. president Biden immediately issued a statement: “Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its Allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way. The world will hold Russia accountable.”
A few hours later Mr. Biden tweeted that he had spoken to President Zelenskyy: “I condemned this unprovoked and unjustified attack by Russian military forces. I briefed him on the steps we are taking to rally international condemnation, including tonight at the UN Security Council.” He added: “Tomorrow, I will be meeting with the leaders of the G7, and the United States and our Allies and partners will be imposing severe sanctions on Russia. We will continue to provide support and assistance to Ukraine and the Ukrainian people.”
The crisis between Russia and Ukraine began months ago with Russian military buildup on its borders with Ukraine, as well as on the territory of Belarus, at the country’s borders with Ukraine to the north. Moscow explained that the military buildup was a measure of self-defense as it perceived security threats stemming from NATO and from Ukraine’s continued cooperation with the West. In December Moscow demanded that NATO and Ukraine leaders sign a treaty offering certain security guarantees to Russia, including a promise that Ukraine will never join NATO. Brussels and Washington stuck to their longstanding policy, explaining that NATO’s open-door policy is not up for negotiation and no state other than Ukraine gets to veto the country’s bid for membership.
After months of searching for a diplomatic solution to the situation it became clear that all Western efforts had failed. On Monday, February 21, Putin held a security council meeting which was televised live. On that night Russia formally recognized Ukraine’s breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states, and explained that the Minsk negotiations were no longer valid. He explained that he had received “appeals by the leaders of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic” to recognize their sovereignty.
Before the full-scale attack began on February 24th, the West was still in the process of approving sanctions in response to Russia’s illegal recognition of the independence of Ukraine’s territories. U.S. and European allies agreed to freeze assets of certain Russian oligarchs, impose travel bans, and sanction select Russian banks. Germany also agreed to halt the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project with Russia (worth nearly $11 billion).
But despite the sanctions, Moscow has shown that it will go to any lengths to achieve its goals. After decades of peacetime, a full-scale war in Europe has become a rarity, and even an unimaginable possibility. But by attacking Ukraine, President Putin has brought a war to NATO’s and EU’s very borders. It is expected that the NATO allies will activate Article 4, according to which the allies can initiate consultations when any of them believes that the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the member states is threatened. Moscow has shown its hand – it has started a war it can only win under the conditions of Western indifference— Putin seems to be counting on the West’s inaction. How the West will retaliate remains to be seen in this harrowing story as it unfolds.
Maia Otarashvili is a Research Fellow and Deputy Director of the Eurasia Program. Maia also serves as the Deputy Director of Research at FPRI. Her research interests include geopolitics and security of the Black Sea-Caucasus region, Russian foreign policy, and the post-Soviet “frozen” conflicts.
