For over a month now Russia has been conducting a major military buildup near its borders with Ukraine, and on the illegally annexed Crimean Peninsula. At the time of this writing there are approximately 175,000 Russian soldiers placed near Ukraine’s borders. Based on these developments, U.S. and NATO intelligence services have warned against a possible large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Ukraine’s president Zelensky recently announced that his government had uncovered a coup plot against him.
This is a continuation of a major military buildup near Ukraine Russia staged earlier this year. Back in March and April the Russian military conducted a large-scale buildup on the border with Ukraine. According to some reports it massed as much as 15% of its total manpower and approximately one-third of its battalion tactical groups, as well as military equipment, including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery, and air defense systems on the border. Ukraine sounded the alarm bells, warning its western allies that Moscow was getting ready to invade. In May Russia pulled back its troops, explaining the event was just a military exercise. However, most of the heavy equipment remained in place and is still there. A June summit between President Biden and Mr. Putin seemed to diffuse the tensions, although no “reset” deal was struck between the now-longtime adversaries.
Moscow again denies plans to invade Ukraine. Vladimir Putin has explained that the military buildup on the border is merely a “defense tactic”, and in return he expects NATO to guarantee that it won’t expand into Ukraine, calling such a potential move a red line. President Putin is also demanding guarantees that there will be no U.S. missiles placed in Ukraine, or anywhere else on the border with Russia.
On December 7, President Biden and President Putin spoke over a video call. The call lasted over two hours, and the White House said President Biden warned Mr. Putin of “severe consequences” as the United States would pursue “strong economic and other measures” if Russia invades Ukraine. Washington has said a major sanctions package is on the table in case of an invasion, this would include removing Russia from the international SWIFT system, and ensuring Germany halts the highly controversial NordStream-2 pipeline project with Russia.
The Kremlin readout of the discussion between Putin and Biden said, “The intra-Ukrainian crisis and the lack of progress in implementing the 2015 Minsk agreements,” have been worrisome to Mr. Putin, and that in the discussion he expressed “serious concern about Kiev’s provocative actions against Donbass.” According to the readout, Biden’s concern about Russian troop movements to the border with Ukraine were met with Mr. Putin’s warnings against NATO:
“Vladimir Putin warned against shifting the responsibility on Russia, since it was NATO that was undertaking dangerous attempts to gain a foothold on Ukrainian territory and building up its military capabilities along the Russian border. It is for this reason that Russia is eager to obtain reliable, legally binding guaranties ruling out the eventuality of NATO’s eastward expansion and the deployment of offensive weapons systems in the countries neighboring Russia.
The two leaders agreed to instruct their representatives to engage in meaningful consultations on these sensitive matters.”
This crisis has quickly revealed itself as a standoff between Russia and the United States/NATO, at its core. The Biden administration seems to be well aware of it and is expressing more concern over and support for Ukraine than it has since Russia annexed Crimea back in 2014. Back then Joe Biden was Vice President of the United States. The Obama administration chose not to become significantly involved, supporting Ukraine only in rhetoric. It was not until the Trump presidency that the United States began arming Ukraine. Now the White House says it’s prepared to be tough on Russia should another invasion happen. According to the White House National Security Advisor, Ned Price, “things we did not do in 2014, we are prepared to do now.”
The United States has also worked actively to de-couple the immediate Russian military threat against Ukraine from the prospects of Ukraine’s NATO membership. The U.S. leaders see the current crisis as something directly related to the conflict in Donbas, and entirely unrelated to Ukraine’s future with NATO. According to them, the age-old message in the West is that whether or not Ukraine (or any other country) becomes a member of NATO is a matter entirely between NATO and the candidate country itself, and there are no legal or logical grounds to give Russia a veto over it.
The U.S. has offered Russia an “off-ramp” in the form of joining the Minsk Agreement and renewing the stalled peace accords that began in 2015, so far without U.S. participation. The Minsk Agreements would include giving a special status to Ukraine’s Russia-backed breakaway region of Donbas, and having elections there so it can self-govern. In return, Moscow would have to pull out its forces from Donbas, hand over the control of the border to Ukraine, and ensure all mercenaries leave the embattled region. This deal is highly unpopular in Ukraine, and over the years mass protests have erupted every time President Zelensky has tried to pursue it. However, the U.S. currently considers it to be the way out of the crisis with Russia, and U.S. leaders seem to be confident this deal can be revived if Russia comes to the negotiating table. Earlier this week, the U.S. Under Secretary for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland explained to the Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs: “the Minsk Agreements offer the best basis for negotiations, and the U.S. is prepared to support a revived effort if the parties welcome that. … a more stable and predictable U.S. Russia relationship is better for both sides.”
This year alone the United States has given over $450 million in security assistance to Ukraine. Over the recent years, after much initial reluctance, the United States and other NATO allies have sold arms to Ukraine so it can defend itself. Notably, Ukraine purchased 210 Javelin anti-tank missiles and 37 launchers from the U.S. in 2018 for approximately $47 million, and the State Department approved the sale of a second batch of 150 missiles and 10 launch units in late 2019. Turkey has also sold Bayraktar TB2 drones to Ukraine, which the latter has successfully deployed in Donbas.
But all of this is seen as a drop in the ocean when it comes to Ukraine’s real security needs. Kiev has been pursuing its path to Euro-Atlantic integration for decades since its independence from the Soviet Union. However, at this time, Ukraine is not even an official NATO membership candidate. Rather, it enjoys various types of formal partner status with the United States, European Union, and NATO – a far cry from the security guarantees a full-fledged NATO membership would give to Ukraine. But this has not deterred Moscow from perceiving the threat of potential NATO eastward expansion as a real and imminent danger to Russia’s national security. To date no form of NATO efforts to build bridges with Moscow has succeeded.
Maia Otarashvili is a Research Fellow and Deputy Director of the Eurasia Program. Maia also serves as the Deputy Director of Research at FPRI. Her research interests include geopolitics and security of the Black Sea-Caucasus region, Russian foreign policy, and the post-Soviet “frozen” conflicts.
