Days later, US-led troops withdrew from a base near Iraq's capital Baghdad that has been repeatedly targeted by Iran-backed militias this year, the coalition said. The Taji military base has frequently been hit by rockets since the United States killed Qassem Soleimani, then the leader of Iran's elite Quds Force, and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis on January 3. Critically, both airstrikes happened in Iraq, casting further doubt onto the strength of the country’s claim to sovereignty and power relative to that of Iran and the United States.
Condemnation of the killings came swiftly, with Iraq’s outgoing Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi calling it “an aggression against Iraq … a flagrant violation of Iraqi sovereignty,” along with denunciations by leaders of the biggest blocs in parliament. Pro-Iranian factions, which compete for influence with the US and other powers for influence in Iraq, clamoured for the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq with the pro-Iran Bina coalition immediately calling on parliament to act to restore Iraq’s sovereignty by ejecting the United States and preventing it from using Iraq’s territory and airspace to conduct such operations.
The parliament then voted to expel the approximately 5,000 U.S. troops from Iraq, 170 to 0. The measure was passed with mostly Shiite factions voting in favour. Kurdish and most Sunni members of parliament did not attend the session, presumably because they oppose ending the US presence in the country.
Despite the developments, Washington responded by threatening Iraq with "sanctions like they've never seen before,” and affirming that it was not willing to bow to Iraqi demands to withdraw its troops with while demanding that Iraq pay for the cost of any US troop withdrawal. The US also argued that the Iraqi parliamentary vote was non-binding, and that its legitimacy was undermined by neither Iraqi Kurds or Sunnis participating.
The recent U.S.-Iraqi talks cap a period in which bilateral relations have been steadily improving since Iraq’s new Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi came into office in May. A Shia former intelligence chief who has good relations with both the US and Iran, al-Khadhimi been credited with working to limit the influence of pro-Iranian militias while carefully navigating the complex power dynamics within his country’s institutions in his short time in office. Addressing reporters in Baghdad in June, Kadhimi said the U.S.-Iraqi talks were about wresting back political autonomy, a veiled reference to the duel that Washington and Tehran have long fought over Iraq. “We want to safeguard our sovereignty and ensure that Iraq does not become a zone for settling scores,” he said.
Although Iraq is allied with the U.S., it has developed increasingly close ties with Iran, largely due to a combined interest in fighting against ISIS, regional proximity, and the fact that both countries have Shia Muslim majority populations. While the U.S. recognizes the cultural and religious ties that exist between Iran and Iraq, the administration wants to decrease Iran’s destabilising influence in Iraq, often exercised by pro-Iranian militias.
Analysts predict that a US withdrawal could bring even more trouble by exposing a weak Iraq to its powerful Iranian neighbor’s increasing weight, warning that a complete withdrawal will only embolden Shia loyalists in Iraq, further alienate the Sunni community from the Iraqi government, and strengthen Iran's expansionist agenda in Iraq as well as the rest of the Middle East.
“Iran has demonstrated its capabilities to do so by maintaining the upper hand in the Iraqi political, security, and economic sectors—even while U.S. troops remained on the ground. Additionally, Iran was able to extend its influence while acting as a shadow government throughout Shia dominated regions of Iraq.” Khairuldeen Al Makhzoomi and Minatullah Alobaidi wrote in the Washington Institute.
This view was reiterated by Sajad Jiyad, a commentator for War on the Rocks. “If the United States does leave and disengages from Iraq it will leave Iran with a more influential position in Iraqi politics. It will strengthen the Bina bloc, which campaigned on forcing U.S. troops out in the 2018 elections, and it will be a foreign policy achievement for the Iranian government, who have long called for the United States to pull its military forces out of Iraq. The Popular Mobilization Forces and the pro-Iran armed groups operating in Iraq will have a bigger role in Iraq’s security, and so the feedback loop with the Bina bloc will continue,” he wrote.
Iraq also faces a dilemma of whether it can maintain its newly improved relations with the United States while forcing it to withdraw troops from Iraq. “The hawks in the Trump administration who urged the president to escalate against Iran could decide that Iraq will be treated as an enemy, thereby necessitating sanctions. Iraq could thus become a battleground where the United States conducts airstrikes and attacks Iranian assets or pro-Iran groups, avoiding direct military confrontation with Iran and a ground war, but pursuing an aggressive strategy with little potential for American loss of life in Iraq. For Iraq that would be the epitome of loss of sovereignty and create a dangerous instability, pushing it toward a cycle of violence,” Jiyad wrote.
The American military presence has been instrumental in leading a coalition of Western nations in Iraq and Syria to fight (ISIS) and in rebuilding and training Iraqi forces to wage that battle on their own. Analysts say that both of those strategic U.S. goals are now as the initial American withdrawal in 2011 – after the 2003 invasion that ousted Saddam Hussein and the attempts to rebuild state and military institutions – led to deeply pro-Shiite sectarian politics. Those paved the way in 2014 for the Sunni jihadist onslaught of ISIS.
Regional US allies have also expressed deep concerns. In January, Saudi Arabia issued a striking warning over the return of ISIS if the US withdraws its troops from Iraq. In an interview with CNN, the country’s Foreign Minister Faisal Bin Farhan Al Saud said the American presence in the region played a crucial role in defeating the terrorist group and was key to preventing its resurgence in the region.
