Donald Trump

The immediate economic impact will be more uncertainty

Iran's vast oil and strategic mineral reserves have moved to the centre of negotiations with the US, which could reshape Trump's calculus

As the US and Iran head to talks in Geneva, competing forces are pulling Trump in opposite directions. There are only two "good" scenarios in front of him, and neither will be easy to achieve.

Decapitation strikes against the country are likely. An invasion is not.

Trump seems to be ending America's longstanding role as crisis manager, preferring to use decisive force to change realities on the ground before negotiating

His meeting with Trump on 11 February, moved up a full week from its original date and just after talks began between Iran and the US, isn't a routine consultation between allies—it's an intervention

Knowing how the US president operates and what he did last year could offer clues about what he might do this year