ANTI-US RHETORIC VS. ECONOMIC COLLAPSE
During the peak of the Coronavirus crisis in Iraq, Iran-backed Shiite militias in Iraq have become more encouraged to attack US personnel and advance Tehran’s interests. US President Donald Trump tweeted last week that “Upon information and belief, Iran or its proxies are planning a sneak attack on U.S. troops and/or assets in Iraq. If this happens, Iran will pay a very heavy price.” Tensions mounted after the IRGC Quds Force commander Brig. Gen. Esmail Ghaani, who replaced Qassem Soleimani, made his first pubic visit to Iraq. According to reports, Ghaani’s visit was meant to consolidate the Shia militias and avert the establishment of a new Iraqi government headed by Adnan al-Zurufi.
Although the threats are rising and an attack on US troops seems imminent, they are not necessarily guaranteed to succeed – or pass without repercussions. The US has not retaliated to the killing of US personnel in the March 11 attack at Camp Taji; however, if Iran carried out another attack through its Iraqi militias, the US will most probably strike back.
And if the US strikes back, Iran might not be able to deal with further losses. At least 3,739 people in Iran have died from COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, according to the Johns Hopkins University tracker. But Iranian opposition groups say the real number is much higher and claim the government has not been honest about the death toll, which could be over 18,000 to date, and half a million Iranians infected. There are also doubts that the peak of infections in Iran is still yet to come and that all talks by officials of containing the virus in forty days is inaccurate.
The Coronavirus pandemic has worsened Iran’s already fragile economy. Since the US imposed sanctions on Iran, Iran’s oil exports have dropped to below $10 billion per year, and its annual budget was reduced by about 40 percent. Meanwhile, at home, Iranian officials vowed to “never” seek help from the U.S. in the fight against the coronavirus. “Iran has never asked and will not ask America to help Tehran in its fight against the outbreak,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Abbas Mousavi said during a press conference.
But statements are one thing, and reality is something else. The regime – while making statements and threats against the US and its interests, has also asked for help from the international community, which the US is a major part of. For the first time since 1979, Iran has asked the International Monetary Fund for an emergency loan. If this means anything, it is that Iran’s economy can no longer hold until this crisis is over. Iran needs all the help it could get and maintain its regional operations could be problematic to receiving any financial help.
The projection of how this is developing could mean that Iran post-corona might be facing dire economic circumstances, increased levels of poverty and unemployment, and further isolation by the international community. A realistic repercussion is a strong return of the streets protests and additional deterioration of the regime and its pillars. Even if this was an opportunity for the IRGC to take over, it will be derailed by the economy and the backlash from the region, mainly where it operates.
A REGIONAL BACKLASH
Iran proved to the world – and mainly to the people in the region – that it has failed to contain and fight the coronavirus. It will take time, but this is not going to pass without a reaction. According to an article published recently by The Guardian, “Health and other officials focused on Lebanon, Iraq and Syria fear the numbers of people infected with coronavirus far exceed the official figures disclosed by all three governments, and claim non-state actors are quarantining entire communities of patients in areas outside state control.”
Hezbollah in Lebanon are still trying to hide the real numbers of those infected within the Shia community. In Iraq, the Communications & Media Commission has banned the Reuters news agency from operating for three months for reporting that the number of covid-19 cases in Iraq is much higher than officially reported. This only means that Iraq is trying to hide the real numbers.
Same goes to Syria and other countries that Iran has access to or is trying to have access to. First Iran brought instability, then economic collapse – see Iraq and Lebanon – and now the coronavirus. And no matter how hard they and their proxies try to hide the negative impact of Iran on these countries and communities, there is nothing left for Iran to hide behind. The resistance narrative have failed and collapsed under the Israeli strikes on Hezbollah’s and Iran’s military positions in Syria. The services and jobs that used to offer alternatives to the Shia communities in Lebanon and elsewhere are now diminishing under US sanctions.
Iran will be left with countries and communities that are struggling financially and are fated to collapse. The most possible scenario is that protests in Lebanon and Iraq will come back – but in a bigger and more vicious wave. It’ll be wide-scale protests with people who have nothing left to lose, and with Iran and its proxies as a clear target.
In the first wave of protests, Iran and its proxies managed to avert the anti-Iran rhetoric and direct it against banks in Lebanon and US presence in Iraq. It attempted – and almost succeeded - in dividing the street and the protestors. However, the coronavirus crisis has changed things and Iran can no longer hide behind official numbers. When the smoke clears, and the real numbers start to emerge, it will be obvious that the Iranian regime was responsible for spreading the Coronavirus to Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, to say the least. This is not going to be an easy reality to deal with, and the protests will not stop until Iran is held accountable, or at least make it up to the people. But resources are scarce and the people have nothing left to lose.
Hanin Ghaddar is the inaugural Friedmann Visiting Fellow at The Washington Institute's Geduld Program on Arab Politics, where she focuses on Shia politics throughout the Levant. She tweets @haningdr
