On March 19th, Kazakhstan’s president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, resigned after having spent almost 30 years as the country’s leader. Under the Soviet rule, he first served as the chairman of the Kazakhstan Council of Ministers from 1984 until 1989; he was then appointed the first secretary of the Communist Party of the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic. In 1990, he became the republic’s president, and once the USSR was dissolved, he became the first president of independent Kazakhstan in 1991. Kazakhstan was among the few nations opposing the USSR’s dissolution and was one of the last ones to leave. Although rich in energy resources, the country relied heavily on Moscow for processing and distributing its crude oil, and this dependence continued well into Kazakhstan’s post-Soviet years. Under Nazarbayev Kazakhstan has been consistently ranked as an authoritarian state, despite the significant modernization the country has undergone over the recent decades, mostly thanks to its oil wealth. Nazarbayev’s unexpected resignation has left more questions than answers about the country’s future, and the situation merits close monitoring as his succession plans begin to unfold.
Although Nazarbayev is no longer president, by most measures he still seems to be in charge. This is largely due to the many steps he took to consolidate virtually all executive power not necessarily in the presidency but under his personality. There are four key positions, some of them lifetime appointments, he will continue to hold, giving the 79-year-old now-former president arguably unlimited power.
In May 2010 the parliament named Nazarbayev the “Leader of the Nation” (Elbasy). This title granted immunity to Nazarbayev, protecting him from any criminal investigation or persecution as well as any media or public scrutiny, and guaranteeing the protection of his assets. Nazarbayev will maintain the Elbasy title going forward.
In May 2018 the parliament passed a law, allowing Nazarbayev to retain his chairmanship of the Kazakh National Security Council for life. The Council’s mandate was also significantly increased by the parliament. The National Security Council is in charge of “ensuring national security and defense capability of the Republic of Kazakhstan in order to preserve domestic political stability, protect the constitutional order, state independence, territorial integrity, and national interests of Kazakhstan.” As well as “evaluating the implementation of the main directions of state policy in the field of ensuring national security, strengthening the country's defense capability, and ensuring law and order.”
Nazarbayev will also remain the chairman of Kazakhstan’s ruling Nur-Otan Party, which currently occupies 84 out of the 107 available seats in parliament. He is also expected to retain his chairmanship of the Samruk-Kazyna national wealth fund. The Khazakh state is the sole shareholder of this sovereign wealth fund, which owns a number of major companies in the country, including the national rail and postal service, Air Astana, and the key energy companies: state oil and gas company KazMunayGas, as well as the state uranium company Kazatoprom.
The combination of these positions will keep Nazarbayev in the driver’s seat, at least for the foreseeable future. Moreover, he will exert significant political influence in the lead up to the April 2020 presidential election, as he has already hand-picked his interim successors. Nazarbayev named speaker of the Senate and his loyal ally - Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, as the new president, who was promptly sworn in. The former president’s daughter, Dariga Nazarbayeva, will replace Tokayev as the speaker of the Senate.
Immediately after taking office, President Tokayev proposed to rename Kazakhstan’s capital city Astana in honor of the former president. The resolution was swiftly approved by the parliament, and Astana is now called Nur-Sultan, which is Nazarbayev’s first name. The city was renamed a number of times in the past. It was called Akmolinsk until it was renamed Tselinograd in 1961 and Aqmola in 1991. It was then renamed Astana in 1997 until this year.
Nazarbayev’s resignation prompted mass protests in Astana and Almaty. According to RFE/RL reporting, the rallies were “organized online by the leader of the banned Kazakhstan's Democratic Choice (DVK) movement, Mukhtar Ablyazov, a vocal critic of Nazarbaev and his government, who lives in self-imposed exile in France.” Among other things, the protesters took issue with the government’s plan to rename Astana. Dozens of protesters were detained on March 22nd, while others celebrated the Norouz holiday in the city streets.
While Nazarbayev’s resignation seems mostly symbolic, and most observers expect more of the same for Kazakhstan – no major democratic openings or reforms – there are still many unanswered questions. As BMB Russia’s Kazakhstan coverage pointed out, “[Nazarbayev is] Clearly drawing from Lee Kuan Yew's model of transition in Singapore, it's hard to imagine anything could happen without his blessing. But that still leaves space for infighting that can force him to pick sides to preserve a political balance of power. Most importantly, the next president will have to continue effectively balancing Russia, China, and the West, both in terms of broader foreign policy approaches as well as for FDI.”
Even if Nazarbayev manages to maintain this new status quo beyond 2020, his advancing age will not allow him to stay in charge in the long term. His succession plan will inevitably include two key features – keeping the Nazarbayev family in charge of the country, and cementing his name in Kazakhstan’s history as the country’s greatest leader. Between his daughter’s Senate speaker position, and his close circle’s influence in Kazakhstan, continuity is likely. Afterall, no election has ever been deemed free or fair in Kazakhstan, and the country’s pseudo-democratic system is conveniently set up for manipulation. The question of Nazarbayev’s legacy, however, is less certain. Although Kazakhstan, according to its constitution, is a democracy the government has continuously suppressed dissent and propped itself up through arrays of undemocratic moves. It has also practically eliminated any political opposition. The sparks of protests against renaming the country’s capital are a reminder that not all dissent is dead in Kazakhstan, and that in the long-term, Nazarbayev’s legacy – when and how he will be remembered - is in the hands of the Kazakh people.
