Iranian President Hassan Rouhani attends a press conference at the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) summit in Shanghai on May 22, 2014. (Mark Ralston/AFP/Getty Images)[/caption]
As Hassan Rouhani travelled to Shanghai this week to attend a pan-Asian security conference, foreign policy observers back in Tehran waited in anticipation. In many ways, both in terms of its timing and mission, this was a significant trip. Eager onlookers wanted to see if President Rouhani had any policy surprises up his sleeve as he traveled to China. The summit—held by the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA), a group of 26 Asian states—has become something of a diplomatic show in recent years. CICA’s official mission is to foster cooperation to secure peace and stability in Asia, but it is above all a platform for diplomatic publicity.
For Iran watchers, no other question was more important than whether Rouhani might use the opportunity in meeting the Chinese and Russian leaders to take his country closer to Moscow and Beijing. In the end, he stuck to the middle ground. There was no announcement of major deals between Iran and any of its Asian partners like the 400 billion US dollar natural gas deal China and Russia signed. There was no hint by Rouhani that he intends to abandon his quest to seek ways to normalize Iran’s ties with the West, and the United States in particular. At the same time, however, he made it clear that he does see Asia playing both a big role in Iran’s economic future and as a diplomatic counter to the Western pressure on Iran.
Back in Tehran, there were those who were thrilled about the prospects of the rising Asia and what it would mean for Iran’s diplomatic fortunes. These Right-wing hawks in Tehran look at the CICA forum as a vehicle to bring about a restructuring of global power politics and reduce what they see to be the West’s disproportionate influence on the international stage.
As one commentary in Iran’s hardline Fars News put it: “The US government is caught in a web of self-deception if it believes that its declining global influence has gone unnoticed among the world's rising powers.” It continued, claiming that Asia gaining at the expense of the United States and the West is inevitable: “The US already has more than it can handle in Ukraine, west Asia and North Africa. The real Asia pivot is driven by rapidly rising economies, especially China, as countries with major oil and gas reserves such as Russia, Iran and Iraq are already turning eastward.”
Others were more humble in their opinions. Elaheh Koulaei, a longtime foreign policy observer and former member of Iran’s parliament put it differently. “More than before, a realistic understanding of the current power structure in the world can open more paths for the future of the Islamic Republic of Iran's foreign policy,” she wrote in an editorial as Rouhani was leaving Shanghai. Koulaei cautioned, however, that “Iran’s situation [also] necessitates adjusting relations with the advanced Western countries in America and Europe, and building confidence with them.” In other words, Rouhani should not for a second think that a fundamental restructuring of global power is imminent. Instead, he should continue talking to Washington and the other Western powers while at the same time slowly building up relations with Asian partners—but he should do so without any illusions about what this could amount to in the short term, as Tehran deals with the pressing challenges of today.
All views expressed in this blog post are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to, The Majalla magazine.
