Turkish President Abdullah Gül (front C), Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (2nd R), Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy (rear C), and members of the Justice and Development Party are in the cockpit for a test-drive after the opening ceremony of the Batıkent-Sincan subway station in the capital Ankara, Turkey on February 12, 2014. (Evrim Aydin/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)[/caption]
Now that the local elections are over, with a resounding victory for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey is seeking the answer to a new question: will he run for the presidency or will he opt to remain prime minister?
Despite conceding that the past few months had been the “toughest period” of his political career, Erdoğan turned the local elections into a vote of confidence in his administration. The prime minister’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) more than survived the recent corruption allegations and charges of authoritarian rule, going on to receive 45 percent of the vote—higher than the 39 percent that the AKP received in 2009. The victory was perceived by many as a public endorsement of Erdoğan, particularly of his potential candidacy in presidential elections scheduled for this summer.
When President Abdullah Gül was asked about his possible candidacy for another term in the presidential office, he said he would “sit to discuss the issue with Erdoğan.” Even though Gül and Erdoğan have been at odds recently over crucial issues such as the Twitter ban, the two politicians have never openly criticized one another, and are unlikely to do anything that would harm their decades-long political partnership. This means they are unlikely to go head-to-head in presidential elections and will consult one another on the AKP’s next move.
Gül is already being touted as Erdoğan’s replacement should the current prime minister go for the presidency. Ministers close to the two statesmen, including Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç, have stated that they would want to see Erdoğan in the presidential palace and Gül return to the AKP, where he previously served the country as prime minister and later foreign minister. The AKP is already manoeuvring for this swap to take place.
According to Turkey’s constitution, anyone nominated for the post of prime minister must be a member of parliament. The AKP therefore needs to make sure Gül holds a seat in parliament if he is to become prime minister. The constitution allows a loophole by which this could happen. If all the deputies of one province resign from their posts, a by-election must be held in that province to choose new deputies. Given this provision, all eyes have now turned to the northeastern province of Bayburt, which is represented by only one deputy, who is a member of AKP. Speaking to the press recently, Bayburt deputy Bünyamin Özbek said he was ready to sacrifice his deputyship for Erdoğan and Gül if they agreed to switch roles. In such a scenario, many believe Gül would take over the premiership but Erdoğan would still determine Turkey’s course, but this time through Gül.
All views expressed in this blog post are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to, The Majalla magazine.
