Politics

A landslide for Democrats. A rebuke to Donald Trump

Republicans face a tumultuous new era

Sara Padovan

The Economist

last update on 04 Nov 2026

Donald Trump entered America’s midterm elections with the lowest net approval rating of any president at this stage in his term in 80 years. Add to that inauspicious sign the fact that the out-of-power party almost always gains seats in the midterms, and you had the makings of a Republican loss. What they got was a wipeout.

By midnight on 3 November it was clear that Democrats had flipped the House of Representatives, with the party on course to pick up perhaps 40 seats, topping most forecasts. More striking, they had gained control of the Senate, too, winning seats in Republican strongholds such as Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, Texas and Kansas, which had not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. In Texas, James Talarico didn’t just eke out a victory; he walloped his Republican opponent, Ken Paxton. The president is blaming the losses on his absence from the ballot, a curious argument given that he has spent the past two months asking voters to imagine he was on the ticket. They did, and Republicans lost.

The Senate map initially looked forbidding for Democrats. They needed to flip four seats to gain control of the chamber, at least two of them in states that Mr Trump won by double digits in 2024. In the end, the favourable political environment for Democrats overwhelmed the favourable electoral map for Republicans. The president had promised to lower prices for Americans and end forever wars.

AFP — Motorists drive past a billboard in Tehran depicting Trump drowning in the Strait of Hormuz on 24 August 2026.

Instead, he barrelled into a conflict with Iran, started a global trade war and seemed more interested in boosting his family’s fortunes than those of ordinary Americans. Mr Trump’s drubbing recalls that suffered by George W. Bush in 2006, when Republicans lost control of both chambers of Congress amid the Iraq war.

Well before election day, it was clear that Democrats were fired up and that Mr Trump had lost the support of independents. The real question, then, was how deep into Republican territory Democrats could go. Mr Trump eased their path. In North Carolina, his attacks helped drive Thom Tillis, a Republican senator, into retirement, leaving Roy Cooper, a popular former Democratic governor, with an open seat to contest.

In Texas, his backing of Ken Paxton over John Cornyn, the incumbent Republican senator, buoyed Democrat James Talarico. In Kansas and Georgia, too, Mr Trump supported Republican Senate candidates who seemed concocted from the fever dreams of Democratic strategists. Roger Marshall in Kansas was a doctor who sued pregnant patients; Mike Collins in Georgia has ties to white supremacists.

A preliminary analysis by The Economist suggests that counties with larger Hispanic populations swung heavily towards Democrats this election

It also helped that Democrats fielded strong candidates, including Adam Hamilton, a megachurch pastor and now the senator-elect in Kansas. Mr Hamilton, who promised sound economic and moral stewardship, won majority-Hispanic Seward County, which voted for Mr Trump by 39 percentage points. In North Carolina, Mr Cooper won Haywood County, a white, rural area that Mr Trump carried by 25 points.

In Mississippi—though he may fall short in his Senate bid—Scott Colom, the Democratic candidate, won Lafayette County, which has voted for Republican presidential candidates in every election since 1984. Georgia, not long ago a red state, now looks more blue than purple. Jon Ossoff, the incumbent senator, romped to victory over Mr Collins. Keisha Lance Bottoms will become the state's first Democratic governor in 24 years. Gina Hinojosa will become the first in Texas in 32 years.

Joel Angel Juarez / AFP — People react during an election night watch party for Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate, State Rep. Gina Hinojosa at Assembly Hall on 3 November 2026 in Austin, Texas.

The swing among Hispanic voters was striking. In 2024, Mr Trump narrowed Democrats' lead among this group by 22 points. To shore up their chances in the House this year, Republicans embarked on a mid-decade gerrymandering spree across the South, betting that their gains among Hispanic voters would hold. They were wrong. A preliminary analysis by The Economist suggests that counties with larger Hispanic populations swung heavily towards Democrats this election.

In Webb County, for example, on the southern border of Texas, voters went from voting for Joe Biden by 23 points in 2020 to supporting Mr Trump by two points in 2024. This year Mr Talarico carried the county by a staggering 47 points.

The group's reversion nearly nullified the redistricting effort in Florida and Texas. On the back of support from Hispanic voters, three Democrats in Florida and at least three in Texas carried gerrymandered districts won by Mr Trump.

BRANDON BELL / AFP — Gas and diesel prices are displayed at a Shell gas station on 2 April 2026 in Lockhart, Texas. Oil and diesel futures climbed approximately 11% to nearly $112 per barrel after Trump signalled continued military action against Iran.

In the campaign's final stretch, Republicans had little to tout. Petrol costs nearly 40% more than a year ago, and diesel prices sit near a record. Mortgage rates are at their highest in three years; inflation has outrun wage growth for six months. Mr Trump's tariffs hit farm country. His only legislative achievement brought deep cuts to the social safety net. His main feat—closing the southern border—was obscured by the cruelty of his mass-deportation campaign. On the campaign trail, many Republicans resorted to fear-mongering about socialism, wokery and Islam. Mr Trump called Abdul El-Sayed, the progressive Senate candidate in Michigan, a jihadist.

For Democrats, the election will not herald a new era of policymaking—they still lack a veto-proof majority—but it is an unequivocal political triumph. For Republicans, the election marks the beginning of a tumultuous new era. Mr Trump has had the party in a headlock for a decade. Politicians who have, willingly and reluctantly, pledged their fealty to him now face a difficult choice. Criticise Mr Trump and he may try to end their career in a primary. Cling to him, and he could end their career in the general.

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