The battle for Yemen has only begun

The Houthis' greatest miscalculation would be to assume that what they witnessed in the first days and weeks of a government counter-offensive represents the full measure of what Yemenis can achieve

The battle for Yemen has only begun

If the battle to liberate Yemen were to unfold over a single day, the announcement of Operation Dawn of Yemen on 5 October 2026 would represent the early morning hours, in which fighters reclaim a position by the sea and strike supplies bound for the front, with much of the work in between never making the news.

This is how I read the situation. Those who demand the results of an entire day at dawn do an injustice to the Yemenis fighting to reclaim their country. So do those who dismiss what has been achieved simply because Sanaa has yet to be recaptured. Much remains to be done, but the campaign is under way, and government forces now have the capabilities and support on which to build.

Around Bab al-Mandab and Dhubab, government forces, backed by the coalition, have retaken strategic positions the Houthis had sought to use as bargaining chips over the security of international shipping. These gains cannot be underestimated. Yemenis are reclaiming their land and their role in safeguarding an international shipping route, rather than leaving it in the hands of a militia that trades on their country's geographical position.

I believe these early gains matter for more than the territory recovered. They demonstrate the government's ability to pursue the liberation of other areas. That makes it essential to defend and build on these advances as fighting continues around the strait. The Houthis will not readily accept their losses, but they face forces with a clear purpose: to sustain the campaign and complete the liberation of the coast, rather than settle for what has already been achieved.

In Taiz, Al-Jawf and western Marib, government forces continue to strike at Houthi movements. In their latest operational update, they reported targeting heavy weapons and reinforcements heading towards the Taiz fronts. The impact of these operations will become clearer as the campaign progresses. Weakening the Houthis' ability to move fighters and replace their losses is essential before further advances can be made.

Global and regional backing for Yemen's government could influence both the pace of military operations and the course of negotiations

Progress cannot be measured solely by the number of towns and cities government forces enter. Commanders face a harder task than raising flags: they must recover territory, hold it and improve coordination between ground forces and air power. As long as they pursue these objectives, there is no reason to let the Houthis feel victorious simply because they remain capable of fighting.

Regional and global backing

Regional and international powers have interests and calculations that could influence both the pace of military operations and the course of negotiations. At a recent meeting in Istanbul, the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Egypt and Pakistan expressed solidarity with Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government, urging the Houthis to halt their attacks and return to the political process. The internationally recognised government can build on that support by making any de-escalation conditional on preventing the militia from rearming and protecting civilians and maritime traffic.

At the same time, Yemen's future must not be held hostage to the shifting interests of other powers. Iran may negotiate over its own interests, but Yemenis are not fighting to become a bargaining chip once again in negotiations beyond their control.

Yemenis also have the right to see the state return before the country's liberation is complete. The people of Taiz need secure roads and access to food and medicine. Residents of recaptured areas await protection and assistance. For me, confidence in the government depends on its ability to fulfil its responsibilities.

With territory reclaimed along the coast and improved fighting capability, Yemenis have every reason to be optimistic

The government can win public support when people see for themselves the difference its presence makes. It can broaden support for Sanaa's recovery by reassuring Yemenis about what will follow its liberation. The Houthis seek to preserve their power regardless of the price Yemenis must pay. The government must show that its aim is to restore a life in which ordinary people are no longer subject to the dictates of armed men. Liberation will then become a cause that touches every Yemeni family, rather than one defined solely by the movement of troops.

Room for optimism

No one can say when government forces will reach Sanaa. Yet, with territory reclaimed along the coast and improved fighting capability, Yemenis have every reason to be optimistic. They also have every right to demand that their leaders press ahead until the state is restored and the militia's threat is neutralised.

The campaign will be long. Yemenis will need patience to protect what they have gained and determination to achieve their ultimate goal. More work lies ahead than has been accomplished so far. Perhaps the Houthis' greatest miscalculation would be to assume that what they witnessed at dawn represents the full measure of what Yemenis can achieve. Yemenis, meanwhile, are preparing for the whole day: a day when they will no longer need the Houthi militia's permission to live in their own country.

font change