Just when it seemed there was little chance that Russia could ever achieve its war aims in Ukraine, US President Donald Trump’s latest quixotic intervention has the potential to turn the tide of the conflict decisively in Moscow’s favour. Despite the Ukraine conflict now having lasted longer than the First World War and having cost the Russians dearly both in terms of blood and pressure, the prospect of Russian President Vladimir Putin declaring victory in the war appeared decidedly remote.
With the Russian economy stagnating under the pressure of Western sanctions, and the Kremlin desperately attempting to deal with manpower shortages caused by the estimated 1.5 million battlefield casualties Russia has so far suffered in the conflict, the omens were not looking good for Putin. Moreover, the Russian leader’s prospects, looked decidedly bleak as a result of the mounting effectiveness of Ukraine’s military assault on Russian infrastructure, with Ukrainian drones and missiles causing immense damage to Russia’s vital oil and gas facilities.
As the Russian economy relies heavily on its earnings from its once profitable energy sector, Ukraine’s ability to target vital oil and gas facilities as far afield as Siberia was having a dramatic impact on Putin’s ability to continue funding his so-called “special military operation” against Ukraine—which, of course, was Kyiv’s prime motivation in launching the attacks in the first place.
The distinct advantage Ukraine had gained in the conflict in recent months now appears to be at risk of being decisively overturned as a result of Trump’s latest intervention in the conflict, which has all the potential not just to hand the advantage back to the Russians on the battlefield. It could ultimately lead Putin to declare victory in the conflict, after all.
It has been no secret that, since starting his second term as US president, Trump has not had an easy relationship with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky. Apart from the now infamous heated exchange that took place between the two leaders in the Oval Office in February last year, Trump has veered between being openly dismissive of Zelensky’s handling of the war and praising him as a valued ally.
Potentially disastrous consequences
The latest fallout between the two leaders—which followed Trump’s surprise announcement that he has struck a deal with Putin for the Russians to provide much-needed diesel supplies—has taken tensions between the two men to an entirely new level—one that could have potentially disastrous consequences for Ukraine’s war effort.
Trump’s diesel deal with Putin, which has resulted in the American leader announcing a sanctions waiver that will allow the US to import 300,000 tons of diesel, is being viewed as a desperate attempt by the White House to ease the domestic pressure on domestic energy prices ahead of next month’s crucial midterm elections.
