Beirut's hands tied to Islamabad negotiating track

Hezbollah's recent rejection of a ceasefire deal is a stark reminder of the futility of the Lebanese state negotiating on behalf of a participant in the conflict without Tehran's consent

Beirut's hands tied to Islamabad negotiating track

Since fighting resumed between Hezbollah and Israel on 2 March, the Lebanese government, led by Nawaf Salam, has sought to contain the escalation through a negotiating track in Washington. In April, it succeeded in reaching a partial de-escalation agreement under which Israel undertook not to target Beirut and its southern suburbs, in exchange for Hezbollah halting its rocket fire on settlements in northern Israel.

The previous Lebanese government, led by Najib Mikati, had reached a ceasefire agreement in November 2024, to which Hezbollah consented at the time, even though it allowed Israel to remain stationed at five border points, gave it latitude to pursue its fighters across Lebanese territory, and failed to guarantee the return of residents to the area south of the Litani River.

The paradox is that, after the fourth round of direct talks between the Lebanese and Israeli delegations concluded in Washington a few days ago, and after both sides had reached a draft for a new ceasefire agreement, Hezbollah tore up the ceasefire altogether. This was despite the fact that its provisions closely resembled those of the 2024 agreement. Both, for instance, call for a complete cessation of fire by Hezbollah, the handover of its weapons to the Lebanese state, the withdrawal of its fighters from areas south of the Litani River, and the deployment of the Lebanese army there.

Hezbollah's rejection of the deal is a stark reminder of the futility of the Lebanese state negotiating on behalf of a participant in the conflict, without the consent of the party actually directing the war, namely Iran. Moreover, it reinforced the prevailing impression that the Lebanese government does not have the final say on questions of war and peace, and that ceasefire negotiations in Lebanon remain bound to the Islamabad track.

Iran's insistence on linking the Lebanese and Iranian fronts effectively strips Beirut of the power to decide for itself on matters of war and peace

Iran had linked any truce with the US and Israel to the Lebanese front, on the grounds that the Mediterranean country is an integral part of any regional settlement. So, Hezbollah's rejection of the agreement could be seen as an Iranian bid to obstruct the Lebanese government's attempt to separate the Lebanon-Iran negotiating track. Indeed, Iranian officials voiced similar objections to the deal following Hezbollah's rejection, including Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei, who mocked Lebanese President Joseph Aoun.

Trump's time crunch

Meanwhile, pressure to reach a settlement is mounting in the United States, where President Donald Trump faces challenges stemming from rising global energy prices and concerns about the war's repercussions for the congressional midterm elections, so it is in his interest to wrap up the war as quickly as possible.

As for Iran, it does not seem to be in as big of a rush to end hostilities, as it could open the door to deferred domestic tensions, such as inflation, unemployment, the grave human and economic losses left by the war, and the bloody repression that extinguished the latest January uprising. Since Iran was jointly attacked on 28 February by the US and Israel, citizens largely rallied around the flag, something the government used to its advantage to deflect attention from domestic grievances.

A prolongation of war could translate Israel's presence in southern Lebanon from a temporary crisis into a permanent nightmare

Staggering cost

In Lebanon, the prime minister held Hezbollah and Iran responsible for the consequences of prolonging the war, stressing that the negotiating track remains the "fastest and least costly" option for the country, especially for the people of the south, where the economic price tag of Israel's bombing campaign has reached the billions, and more than a million people have been displaced.

In a troubling development, Israel has recently reached the outskirts of Nabatieh, making it the first city north of the Litani River it has occupied. Residents fear it could also be flattened just as the Israeli army razed Bin Jbeil to the ground.

In conclusion, Iran's insistence on linking the Lebanese front with that of the regional war between Tehran and Tel Aviv effectively strips Beirut of the power to decide for itself on matters of war and peace. But as politicians trade barbs, the reality on the ground is slowly taking shape. A prolongation of war could translate Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon from a temporary crisis into a permanent nightmare.

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