With the thorny issue of migration posing one of the key challenges facing the premiership of UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, publication of the country’s latest migration figures this month will come as welcome relief for the beleaguered British prime minister.
The sharp increase in the number of migrants making their way to the UK—both legally and illegally—in the past decade or so has become one of the most toxic issues in British politics, with both the rival Conservative and Labour parties struggling to control the spiralling figures.
While much of the controversy over migration has focused on the number of illegal migrants reaching the UK from France in small boats—the number passed the 200,000 mark earlier this month—both of the country’s main political parties have come under fire for failing to keep overall levels of migration under control.
Critics have claimed that overall net migration, which has averaged around 250,000 people over the past decade, is unsustainable because of the pressure it places on local communities to provide access to vital public services, such as health and education, housing, and jobs.
The issue became highly charged following the dramatic upsurge in net migration during Conservative leader Boris Johnson’s premiership, when the UK allowed relatives and dependents of migrants with residency status to enter the country. Known as the “Boriswave”, the brief relaxation in the rules following Brexit saw net migration to the UK nearly top the one million mark.
The increase prompted a swift reaction from British policymakers: first, Conservative leader Rishi Sunak, who replaced Johnson as prime minister in 2022, introduced tougher rules; then, Starmer introduced his own new restrictions after becoming Labour prime minister in 2024.
Sharp drop
The introduction of these new measures has led to official figures published this month showing that net migration to the UK in 2025 has fallen to 171,000, almost half the number seen in 2024. The figures for the 12 months to December, which primarily reflect legal levels of migration, are down 48% compared with the previous year (331,000), according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
It is the first time the estimate—the difference between the number of people arriving and leaving the country—has fallen below 200,000 since the start of the Covid-19 outbreak. An estimated 813,000 people are expected to have arrived in the UK in 2025, while 642,000 are likely to have left. This means that the figure is at its lowest level since 2012—excluding the Covid pandemic.
This gives Starmer a rare political victory at a time when his leadership has come under intense pressure following disastrous results in the UK’s recent local elections, in which Labour suffered heavy defeats.
Reacting to the news, Starmer said his government was “heading in the right direction" and said the data showed that his government was "delivering", adding: "I know there's more to do; we're introducing a skills-based migration system that rewards contribution and ends our reliance on cheap overseas workers."
One major concern for Starmer, though, will be the fact that the latest migration figures include 93,525 people who have claimed asylum in the UK, which, while a decrease from the previous year’s figure, shows that the UK government is still struggling to control the flow of illegal migrants entering the UK, especially those travelling in small boats across the Channel.
The figures are therefore likely to create further friction between rival political groups over migration policy, with Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood continuing with her plan to introduce tougher rules for those seeking to acquire UK citizenship and those, such as former Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner, who believe the government should take a more relaxed approach to the issue. Meanwhile, the continuing high levels of net migration are likely to prove a vote winner for Nigel Farage’s populist Reform party, which has drawn widespread support for its hardline approach to migration.
Tougher requirements
Starmer's attempts to bring migration under control mean that those seeking residency in the UK in future are likely to face more demanding requirements as the Labour government seeks to counter Reform, which holds a double-digit lead in opinion polls.
