In 1982, the Israeli army invaded Lebanon and advanced to Beirut. The Palestine Liberation Organisation was expelled, and Hezbollah was in its infancy. That same year, the Israeli leadership, under Menachem Begin and Ariel Sharon, opened secret channels with the president-elect, Bashir Gemayel, in preparation for the signing of a peace agreement.
But he was assassinated on 14 September 1982, and his brother Amin was elected president in his place. Negotiations with Israel were again pursued through the ambassadors of Beirut, Damascus and Tel Aviv. Those efforts culminated in the US-sponsored 17 May Agreement of 1983.
Yet the agreement collapsed beneath the combined weight of an internal alliance and Syrian intervention. It was followed by an "uprising" in which Nabih Berri and Walid Jumblatt emerged. Syrian tutelage tightened its grip, while Hezbollah expanded at the expense of Amal.
That process continued until the assassination of Rafik Hariri in February 2005. Syria withdrew two months later, in April 2005, but the influence of Hezbollah and Iran over Lebanon, Syria, and the wider region only deepened, particularly after 2011.
Changed landscape
Since the Hamas October 7 attack on Israel, the geopolitical landscape across the region has been significantly transformed. Following the fall of the Assad regime, the 'new Syria' sealed its borders against the flow of armaments to Hezbollah, charting a distinct course. President Ahmed al-Sharaa has championed a rebuilding of the relationship between the two states on equal footing and has pushed for resolving disputes with Israel.
Iran's influence beyond its borders is the weakest in years. Instead of bombs falling only on its regional proxies, US and Israeli attacks have hit the country's very core. Hezbollah, meanwhile, has been cornered, with most of the Lebanese people turning against it.
