Viktor Orbán: Will Hungary's longtime PM hold onto his seat?

Orbán, who has been trailing in the polls, got a boost on 9 April when Trump addressed his supporters via phone during a campaign rally in Budapest, saying he's 'with him all the way'

Sara Padovan

Viktor Orbán: Will Hungary's longtime PM hold onto his seat?

On the eve of Hungary's highly contested election, two main rivals have been heavily campaigning as Péter Magyar attempts to end 16 years of continuous rule by Viktor Orbán's party Fidesz.

Orbán, who has been trailing in most polls, got a boost when US Vice President JD Vance attended a campaign rally in Budapest on 9 April and called US President Donald Trump, who addressed the crowd via phone.

“I’m a big fan of Viktor. I’m with him all the way. The United States is with him all the way,” Trump told the crowd. The rally came two months after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Budapest, when he stressed that “Hungary’s success is our success.”

“Remember this, he didn’t allow people to storm your country and invade your country, like other people have, and ruin their countries,” Trump told the Hungarian crowd via speakerphone. “He’s kept your country good. He’s kept Hungarian people in your country, and he’s done a fantastic job.”

The current American administration believes that a Trumpian revolution is coming to Europe, just one election cycle behind the US, and that Hungary is the trailblazer in that movement. Sunday’s election will test that belief. The opposition Tisza party, led by Magyar, has held a double-digit lead over the ruling Fidesz party in most polls for over a year, focusing primarily on domestic issues such as the economy, healthcare, and corruption.

This runs contrary to Orbán's approach, which has been heavily focused on foreign policy. Since returning to the premiership in 2010, Hungary has found itself deeply involved in the conflict taking place in neighbouring Ukraine. This has meant that Orbán, who has good relations with Putin, has found himself playing a pivotal role in efforts to end the conflict, not least because of Hungary’s membership of both the NATO alliance and the European Union. Orbán positioned himself as a key interlocutor, someone who fully understands the concerns of both sides.

His efforts to help end the Ukraine war—something Trump has said he is keen on resolving—have been welcomed by the White House. Trump’s affinity for the Hungarian leader was certainly very much in evidence when Orbán visited the White House in early November. The meeting ended with Trump announcing that he had exempted Hungary from sanctions over its continued purchases of Russian oil and gas for one year.

Early life and career

Orbán first made his mark on Hungary in the late 1980s, as the Soviet Union began to fall apart, by setting up a political movement called Fidesz, or the Alliance of Young Democrats. He was still a law student at Bibo College in the capital, Budapest, when in 1989 he delivered an audacious, seven-minute speech calling on the Soviet Red Army to go home.

“If we believe in our own power, we are able to finish the communist dictatorship,” he declared to an estimated quarter of a million Hungarians gathered in the city’s Heroes’ Square for the reburial of the man behind Hungary’s failed uprising in 1956, Imre Nagy.

Reflecting on his words 10 years later, Orbán said he had “exposed everyone’s silent desire for free elections, and an independent and democratic Hungary”.

Orbán was born in 1963, in a town an hour from the capital city Budapest. The eldest of three sons, his father was an agricultural engineer and Communist Party member and his mother was a special needs teacher. In the months before he went to university, he carried out his military service, where he says he turned down an approach from the communist secret services to become an informer.

Given how he rose to power, it is remarkable that Orbán has positioned himself as the only EU politician who can maintain close ties with Putin.

Nothing about his childhood suggested that he would go on to challenge the communist regime. He attended a grammar school and was a member of the Young Communist League. After his 1989 speech to a large crowd in Heroes' Square, he briefly studied political philosophy at Oxford. His scholarship was funded by Hungarian-born billionaire philanthropist George Soros, a benefactor who would later turn against him. As a young MP, Orban and his party joined the global Liberal International movement in 1992.

Political scientist Zoltan Lakner believes Viktor Orban shifted ideology during the second half of the 1990s. As Hungary was governed by a liberal-socialist coalition, he realised "to gain political success he had to turn his back on liberalism, external and transform his party into a nationalist, anti-liberal political force".

Orbán became Fidesz leader in 1993 and was already pushing it to the centre-right by the time the conservative MDF lost power in 1994. Fidesz filled the gap left by the weakened conservatives.

Peter Rona, an Oxford-based economist and former candidate for president of Hungary, describes a meeting with Orbán in the early 1990s, at which he said he wanted to create a "modern Conservative party". When Rona warned him that earlier politicians who had attempted the same thing had quickly dropped the "modern" when circumstances demanded, Orbán replied: "Then so be it."

ERIC CABANIS / AFP
A picture taken on 16 July 1998 in Paris shows Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban (L) welcomed at the Hotel Matignon by his French counterpart Lionel Jospin.

Europe's youngest premier

In 1998, Orbán led Fidesz to election victory, and at 35 became Europe's youngest prime minister, taking Hungary into NATO in 1999. He then suffered two defeats at the ballot box, in 2002 and 2006.

Orbán was swept back into office in the turbulence of the global economic crisis in 2010 and has not lost since. In the past 14 years, he has transformed Hungary through a host of changes to its laws and constitution, winning four consecutive elections with four straight "super-majorities" and controlling two-thirds of parliament.

For a Central European leader whose political infancy was rooted in the fall of Russia's hegemony, it is remarkable that Orbán has managed to position himself as the one EU politician who can maintain close ties with Putin.

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