What Israel's tolerance for war means for the region

As Israel's ability to wage a multifront war and absorb blows grows, past assumptions and strategies need to be revised to adapt to this new reality.

What Israel's tolerance for war means for the region

The Israeli Knesset’s approval of the law to execute Palestinian prisoners convicted of carrying out attacks that kill Israelis reveals the extent to which the far right has entrenched its influence—not only within the governing coalition but across Israeli society more broadly. This comes at a moment when the war on Iran and Lebanon continues, with no serious Israeli objection to either its course or cost.

For several years, the most extreme currents of the right have moved steadily into the Israeli mainstream. The conduct of National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, once dismissed as inconsequential provocation during his time in the racist Kach movement, has become an everyday spectacle in which thousands of settlers and soldiers in the West Bank now participate openly before the cameras, untroubled by any fear of accountability.

The mass demonstrations that erupted in March 2023 against Netanyahu and his government’s attempt to alter the laws governing the judiciary now seem to belong to the distant past, of which there is no return.

The region has changed profoundly since the 1990s, when Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres spoke of a form of integration between Arab capital and the Israeli mind. The much-discussed roads and transit hubs meant to link Arab countries to Europe via Israel now look more like science fiction than any blueprint for future cooperation.

A hardened society

The October 7 Hamas attack on Israel has hardened Israeli society, closing them off to any form of peace with Palestinians and with Arabs more broadly. The appalling death toll in Gaza has been largely met with approval by Israelis who see it as just retribution for October 7.

The long war, with its many phases, fronts, and aims, has become a way of life inside Israel

Although forecasts for economic growth have fallen from 5.2% in 2026 to 3.3%, the broader picture in Israel suggests that a war economy is steadily taking root—one capable of absorbing the continuation of fighting on several fronts at once while preserving a sufficient level of output to avert suffocating crises in the foreseeable future, so long as absolute American support remains in place. Even the suspension of Israeli gas exports has produced crises for importers rather than for Israel itself.

Gradually, the old stereotypes once embraced by many Arabs, concerning Israel's inability to fight more than one war at a time, the short breath of its army, and the society's acute sensitivity to military casualties, are fading away. The experience of the past two and a half years has shown that many previously-held assumptions are wrong.

The long war, with its many phases, fronts, and aims, has become a way of life inside Israel. It has also become a major political platform for ruling right-wing parties, catering to an Israeli public that no longer wishes to hear anything about Arabs, Palestinians, Iran, or Hezbollah except news of their destruction and death.

Israel's economic growth forecast is shrinking, but the broader picture suggests an economy capable of sustaining the impact of a multifront war

Masada mode

Having said that, Israel has no vision for its future in the region beyond reenacting the story of Masada—a mythical interpretation of history that depicts a besieged Jewish fortress fighting for survival in the face of a Roman assault. 

The comparison of Israel to Masada is hardly new. It has formed part of Israeli propaganda for decades. What is new is that this fortress has turned into a military machine, dispensing destruction in every direction while its inhabitants show little concern for the future of relations with a region that is itself reshaping its interests and contemplating new alliances to protect them, now that past assumptions about security guarantees have been exposed as fragile.

As Israel's ability to wage a multifront war and absorb blows grows, past assumptions and strategies need to be revised to adapt to this new reality.

font change